Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 5/17)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics

Diamondbacks -162 @ Athletics +136 — Total 10 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

I didn’t see many edges in the strikeout market this Wednesday, but we have a team total that should get us a W. The Diamondbacks and Athletics finish off a three-game set after splitting the first two games. On the bump for the soon-to-be Vegas A’s is right-handed pitcher Luis Medina, who has really struggled through his first two MLB starts.

Medina is a four-pitch pitcher and has featured his fastball more than 50% of the time so far. The issue is that it has an expected batting average of over .300 with an expected slugging percentage of over .600. The 24-year-old hasn’t shown a great ability to miss bats or induce groundballs at an above-average rate. Medina has thrown 24.2 innings above AA ball, and so far it seems like he could use some more time at the AAA level but the A’s are desperate for arms. Things won’t get any better after Medina departs as Oakland’s bullpen has the chance to be one of the worst of all time. Their 7.18 ERA, 6.07 FIP, and 5.19 SIERA rank dead last in the majors. The A’s bullpen is one of two major league clubs with a strikeout minus walk percentage in the single-digits at 6.4%.

On the offensive side, Arizona averages the sixth-most runs a game in the majors this season at 5.16. Their 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks fifth best in baseball and their .341 wOBA sits only behind the Rays, Red Sox, and Dodgers. Their lineup makes a ton of contact, and their platoon ability makes it tough on opposing teams. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have a better batting average than the Dbacks this season.

I don’t expect Medina to go more than five innings this Wednesday afternoon which means we should get about four innings out of this putrid A’s bullpen. I actually played 4.5 -135 in this one but most of the 4.5’s are too juiced at this point. If you can find a 4.5 lined at -145 or less that would be fine but the five should be good here as well. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.