Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 4/19)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cincinnati Reds

Rays -260 @ Reds +210 – Total 10 (Caesars)

Our writeups suffered their first loss last week, but we have a nice bounceback spot Wednesday afternoon at Great American Ball Park. I’m going to keep this brief since first pitch is in a little over an hour. Drew Rasmussen toes the rubber for the 15-3 Rays, facing rookie Levi Stoudt of the Reds. The Rays are massive favorites today and deservedly so. I bet Tampa on the run line as well, but that number has moved about 35 cents, and I wouldn’t play it at its current price.

The Rays lead the majors in runs per game so far in 2023, averaging 6.94. Tampa leads the league in most offensive categories, including wOBA (.382) and wRC+ (153) against right-handed pitching. Their offense has been an absolute wagon and I don’t expect it to slow down here. Stoudt has only thrown 30 innings above AA and has had issues with his control. Stoudt has walked three batters in all three AAA starts he’s made this year, which could mean trouble versus this disciplined club. The Rays enter Wednesday’s game with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and a walk rate right outside the top 10. Steamer projects the rookie for a 5.44 ERA in 59 innings this season.

I’m projecting Stoudt to pitch less than five innings Wednesday before giving way to a Reds bullpen that ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.