Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 9/27)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

BAL +1.5 -170 (Caesars Sportsbook)

With just nine games left in the regular season, Tuesday’s AL East showdown between the Orioles and the Red Sox has some significant implications. Boston was officially eliminated over the weekend, but the Orioles are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card and still have a shot to make the postseason. Boston has the opportunity to play spoiler over the next three nights. 

The Orioles are 3-2 in their last five games, and this series against Boston means everything. The Orioles lead the season series 9-7 against Boston this year, so we can anticipate a close matchup tonight. The Red Sox are on a five-game losing streak and seem to have come to terms with the fact that their season is already over. 

Kyle Bradish will take the mound for the O’s. Bradish is coming off an excellent start against the Astros where he allowed just two hits with 10 strikeouts in 8.2 innings. On the season, in 21 starts, Bradish is 4-7 with a 4.65 ERA, a 4.30 FIP and a 1.35 WHIP. 

This will be the fifth time Bradish will face the Red Sox this season. In his last start against Boston, he allowed one run on two hits in seven innings of work in an Orioles loss. Bradish has yet to beat the Red Sox this season, but his outings against Boston have been mostly solid.

Bradish, who has had his ups and downs in his rookie year, has been better on the road this season. In 47.1 innings away from Camden Yards, he has a 4.18 ERA, a .242 batting average against, a 3.43 FIP, and a 1.23 WHIP. All of these statistics are improvements in comparison to Bradish pitching at home. 

On the flip side, Michael Wacha will take the mound for the Red Sox at home. On the season, Wacha is 11-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and a 3.65 FIP. This will be the third time Wacha faces the Orioles this season. In his two starts against the O’s this season, he has allowed three runs on 10 hits in 11.2 innings of work and the Sox won both games. 

Wacha is having a great season, and he has been almost unhittable at home. In 52.1 innings at Fenway this season, Wacha has a 1.72 ERA, a .195 batting average against, a 3.48 FIP and a 0.92 WHIP. 

While Wacha has been better at home this season, I still see this as an opportunity for the Orioles to capitalize. For starters, Wacha has a much higher FIP than ERA. This leads me to believe regression is still on the table for Wacha. Also, the Orioles bullpen is much better than Boston’s, so whenever Wacha gets knocked out of the game, the advantage shifts toward Baltimore. 

The Orioles are 81-42 this season covering the run line as an underdog. Given the fact that my numbers have the O’s as a favorite, I will gladly take +1.5 runs, even if the juice of -170 is a little high. 

Bet: Orioles RL +1.5 -170 (Caesars Sportsbook)