Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 9/20)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

You can check out the full card at the Bet Tracker. If you’re not subscribed, join now and get 20% off using promo code PAULY.

Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays 

Under 6.5 runs -120 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tuesday night, the Astros and the Rays face off for the second game of a three-game series. The Astros took Game One 4-0, but this time they will have to go against the Rays’ ace, Shane McClanahan. Monday was the first time these teams have met this season, with five more coming before the season ends. 

The Astros have already clinched their postseason berth, but the Rays still have work to do. Tampa Bay has a chance to win the AL East still, but it’s a long shot — currently, the Rays are 6.5 games behind the Yankees. However, the Rays have a six-game lead over the Orioles for the final AL Wild Card spot. The Rays are fairly locked into their postseason slot, but winning every game they can down the stretch could potentially get them the division. 

As mentioned earlier, the Rays’ ace will be on the hill at home. In 25 starts this season, McClanahan is 12-5 with a 2.13 ERA, a 2.60 FIP and a 0.86 WHIP. In his last two starts, McClanahan has not allowed a run and he allowed only seven hits in 11 innings of work. In those two games, he also struck out 14 combined batters. 

McClanahan has pitched most of his innings at home this season, and his splits at home are impressive. In 96.2 innings of work at home, McClanahan has a 2.23 ERA, a .199 batting average against, a .290 slugging percentage against, a 2.40 FIP, and a -.94 WHIP. The Rays are 3-2 in his last five home starts, but just 2-3 to the under. 

Cristian Javier, who has been amazing this season in his own right, will make the start for the Astros tonight in Tampa. In 22 starts this season, Javier is 9-9 with a 2.87 ERA, a 3.35 FIP, and a 0.99 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched six innings of shutout ball and allowed just two hits with eight strikeouts. 

On the road this season, Javier sees his ERA jump up to 3.34, he has a .203 batting average against, a 2.98 FIP, and a 1.10 WHIP. The Astros are just 2-3 in his last five road starts and those games went under in two of the five starts as well. 

I expect this game to be a pitcher’s duel and I like the under in this spot even though it is set as low as 6.5 runs. The Rays’ offense has been weak this season and it is tough to see them beating up on Javier. On the other hand, while the Astros’ offense has been elite this year, I see them struggling tonight. McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in baseball and his team needs a win, so I expect him to pitch well and deep into this ball game. 

I have this priced at O/U 6-110, so there is still value in U 6.5 -120. I expect an excellent game, and I believe there will be limited scoring. 

Bet: Under 6.5 runs -120 (FanDuel Sportsbook)