NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
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Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Mariners ML -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Both the Padres and the Mariners currently hold a playoff spot in their respective leagues, but neither team is completely safe from the competition. The Mariners have just a half-game lead for the first Wild Card spot in the American League, and the Padres have just a two-game lead for the last Wild Card spot in the National League.
It is crunch time in the MLB, and if these two teams want to continue their seasons deep into October, they both need to win now. This presents an exciting matchup deep in the season. The Mariners won the first two games these two teams played in San Diego, and now the Padres have the chance to exact revenge on the road in Seattle.
Both teams are running well over the last 30 games. Seattle is 20-10 in their last 30 and the Padres are 16-14. Seattle is coming off a huge 2-1 series win against the Braves in Atlanta, and the Padres are coming off a 2-1 series loss to a Dodgers team that has their number.
Given how close this matchup is on paper, and seeing how the betting market agrees, this becomes an interesting game to break down. Yu Darvish has been excellent for the Padres this season, and he will face Logan Gilbert, who has been equally as impressive for Seattle this year. However, something has to give, and I think the Mariners pull off this win.
In 26 starts this season, Darvish is 13-7 with a 3.31 ERA, a 3.49 FIP and a 0.98 WHIP. In his last three starts, Darvish has allowed six runs on 12 hits in 21 innings of work. However, On the road this season, Darvish has been a much worse pitcher. His ERA jumps up to 4.09, he sees an increase in batting average against, on-base percentage against, slugging percentage against, and WHIP in his road starts. San Diego is 7-7 straight up in Darvish’s road starts this season.
Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle. In 28 starts this season, Gilbert is 12-5 with a 3.23 ERA, a 3.49 FIP and a 1.20 WHIP. Gilbert pitched against the Padres July 5 and allowed two runs on six hits in 5.1 innings of work in a Mariners win. At home this season, Gilbert has been solid. His ERA jumps up to 3.60 and he has a .406 slugging percentage against, but his FIP drops to 3.06 and he has a higher strikeout percentage. Seattle is 7-5 straight up in Gibert’s home starts this season.
The Padres’ offense has been inconsistent all year long, and it is hard to see them coming back and being productive against Gilbert. While Darvish has been great for San Diego, his road splits are concerning, and he seems to be vulnerable away from Petco Park. I have this game priced at Seattle -125, so at Seattle -105, there is value.
Bet: Seattle ML -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
