Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The MLB season is coming down to the end, and there is no NFL Tuesday night, which is only the second time in the past five days that has been the case. So let’s take some time to identify our best bet of the day. It’s a great thing we have the help of the FTN Betting Model, and it has pointed to a pitcher most will likely not consider.
MLB Best Bets
Bradley Blalock Over 15.5 Outs
(+130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Did I expect to be writing about a Colorado Rockies pitcher Tuesday morning? Not particularly, but that is why we constantly use the Prop Tool to find value. The play with the highest EV on the board is none other than Bradley Blalock to record at least 16 outs against the Tigers, and the +130 odds are making this worth the risk. Blalock has only started five games for Colorado this season, but he’s hit this benchmark in three of them and should face six lefties in the Detroit lineup. That should help Blalock since the K rate is a touch higher and the wOBA is a touch lower against that side of the plate. He’s using the splitter as his secondary pitch against lefties and it has a 34.4% whiff rate. Now, the wOBA allowed from the pitch is .423 but only one Tiger has a wOBA of over .319 against that pitch. If the splitter can work against those lefties Tuesday, Blalock has a very realistic shot at 16 outs or more.
