Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I’m not the first to say it, and I certainly won’t be the last, but on Tuesday’s full 15-game MLB slate, the first game doesn’t start until 6:35 p.m. ET, and … come on, MLB, that’s dumb. Every day should have at least one day game, or at the very least, every day with a full slate of games should have one.
On the other hand, having a whole day before the games start gives us plenty of times to check lines and bets to pick out our favorite wagers. Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Over 8 Runs
(-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Twins last had a day off on July 1. Same for the White Sox. The Twins have used all three of Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Josh Staumont (their top two and three of their top four relievers) each of the last two days, while the White Sox have used their top two (Michael Kopech and John Brebbia) the last two as well, while recently called up Jordan Leasure threw 29 pitches Monday. Long man Michael Soroka hasn’t thrown since Saturday, but he threw 61 pitches in that game, so even he might not be up for much. In other words, these teams are going to be light on their good (or, in the White Sox case, “good”) pitchers. The Twins are the runaway best offense in baseball over the last month (a ridiculous 156 wRC+ over the last 30 days — No. 2 Baltimore at 132 is closer to No. 11 Tampa than to Minnesota), and while the White Sox are of course a terrible offense, they’ve also improved — 79 wRC+ for the season, 85 the last 30 days, 96 the last 14. Even facing surprise breakout Erick Fedde, this is mostly a bet on the Twins offense, but with a bit of a “White Sox against the back end of the Minnesota bullpen” sprinkle.
Blake Snell Over 4.5 Strikeouts
(-125, ESPNBet)
It’s hard to paint Blake Snell’s Giants tenure-so-far as anything but an outright disaster. He had a late start to the season because he signed so late, he’s already had two IL stints, and in the six games he has pitched, he has yet to win a game, complete five innings or give up fewer than 3 earned runs. It’s now July and he has a 9.51 ERA and a WHIP of almost 2.0 (1.944). That said, he still gets strikeouts. In his three outings between IL stints, Snell had 19 strikeouts in only 12.0 innings. In his last two rehab starts before returning, he struck out 13 in 9.1. Meanwhile, Toronto’s K rate has moved in the wrong direction lately — the Blue Jays had a 19.3% K rate through the end of May, but it’s at 22.3% the last 30 days and 24.3% the last 14. I’d take the under on Snell completing 6 innings or anything close to it, but I’d take the strikeouts easily (and it’s worth noting, this line is -140 or worse everywhere but ESPNBet).
