Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Fireworks, apple pie and baseball. Nothing more American than that. We are celebrating America’s birthday at FTNBets by offering the first month for just $1 with this link and promo code “USA.” Below I will show you a few ways to find bets everyday using some of the tools available in our MLB section.
Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bet
Keaton Winn Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Keaton Winn has bounced back and forth from AAA to the majors. He is a young 25-year-old, so there is nothing wrong with that. The Giants are stretching him out. He had been throwing 50-60 pitches per start while making it through four or five innings. His last start he almost touched 70 pitches and made it through six innings. This is his fourth start since being recalled and fifth of the season. He’s not likely to get 100 pitches, but 70-75 is definitely expected. The reason this matters is that Winn has 12 strikeouts on 226 pitches in the majors. That breaks down to about one every 18 pitches. If he gets to 70-72, that would mean he projects for 4 or more with a prop of only 3.5.
On top of that, Winn has one of the best possible matchups for a right-handed pitcher. The Seattle Mariners have the second-highest strikeout rate v. RHP on the season at 25.6%. They are below average at creating runs as well, with a wRC+ of just 98. Even if Winn only goes 5 IP, that would be 15 outs. With a 25% strikeout rate, that would be a raw projection of 3.75 strikeouts. Not a huge advantage, but above the 3.5 prop number and remember that number is at plus money.
Finally, I confirmed my love of Winn by checking out our FTN Projection model. We have him closer to 4.5 strikeouts on the projection. That makes him one of the biggest edges we have in our FTN MLB Prop Tool.
