Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have MLB trade deadline looming Tuesday night, so we need to be a little careful with the plays we make. I’ll be sticking to teams we know have already added in hopes that we don’t get a rude surprise after a bet is placed. Let’s figure things out with the help of the FTN Betting Model.
MLB Best Bets
Luis Castillo Under 17.5 Outs
(+120, BetMGM)
I’m typically going to be willing to bet against Luis Castillo on the road since the Seattle righty has a 2.82 ERA in Seattle but a 4.11 mark on the road. All of his numbers — including the K rate, HR/9, WHIP, FIP and xFIP — get significantly worse on the road and Castillo also struggles more with lefty hitters. When he faces a lefty away from Seattle, they have racked up a 1.67 HR/9, a 5.56 FIP and a .337 wOBA. Castillo should only face three righties and he’s using the four-seam fastball as his main pitch. Every Red Sox hitter has a .311 wOBA or higher except Tyler O’Neill and the lefties like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Rafael Devers, Dominic Smith and David Hamilton have an ISO of at least .221. This wager has the third-highest edge in the model and the Red Sox are well-built to give Castillo fits.
New York Mets Over 4.5 Runs
(+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
There would be a lot of situations in which I would bet the Mets to score five runs for +110 in general, and facing rookie David Festa certainly checks that box. Festa is a well-regarded pitcher breaking into the majors but through his first 14.1 innings, it has been a tough go. He’s allowing an 8.16 ERA with a 5.21 xERA and 6.23 FIP, although we should point out that the xFIP of 4.09 is not that bad. It’s unrealistic to expect Festa to continue to allow a 3.14 HR/9 but the Mets have Jess Winker in the lineup now, which lengthens it even more. Festa has allowed a 14.6% barrel rate and the Mets rank in the top 10 in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS and OBP against righty pitching this year. They also hammer Festa’s particular mix of four-seam fastballs, sliders and changeups so this is a strong spot even though we may not get the ninth inning to tack on.
