MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Tuesday’s MLB slate reminds me of one of my favorite shows/movies of all time. Those who know me, know I am talking about The A-Team. Face, Hannibal, B.A. and Murdock all had diverse skill sets. At the end of the day though, we all loved watching when a good plan came together. The reason why I view the day’s MLB slate in the same way is because after digging into both pitchers in my bet of the day, a really good plan came together to create Tuesday’s MLB Best Bets.
Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bet
Garrett Whitlock Over 4.5 Strikeouts
This is the biggest edge in our MLB Strikeout Prop Model Tuesday at over 12%. Garrett Whitlock has thrown about 200 innings over the past couple seasons at the big0league level. He’s been a little below average this year, but still has over nine strikeouts per nine in his career. This Marlins team is better than most with just a 21.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, which is why the number seems so low at just 4.5 Ks for Whitlock. We project him more than a full strikeout above that prop number at 5.7 K’s, which he should get easily if he goes 6 and may even lock it up before the end of the fifth.
Best MLB Total Outs Prop Bet
Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 Outs
This is the smallest of the playable edges we had in our Prop Model, but it’s still something I wanted to discuss. Sandy Alcantara has had an up-and-down season, but even in some of those rough starts he has managed to get 19 or more outs. He’s given up four or more runs in three of the last four games but managed to go at least 5.2 innings in all of them and averaged over nineteen outs during this stretch. I’m not expecting many strikeouts, but that also may help keep the pitch count low.
Best MLB Total Bet
Marlins vs. Red Sox Under 9.5 Runs
My bet of the day pick is the under in this Red Sox/Marlins game. Sure, Alcantara is not pitching his best, but he is a serviceable arm and facing a Red Sox team that is league average with just a 102 wRC+ and a lucky .307 BABIP. That ranks seventh in the league, which is why I say they have been lucky and still are barely above average even with that luck. The Marlins are one of the better under teams in the MLB, cashing unders in 55% of the games they have played this season. The 9.5 run number feels a bit too high for this matchup and our MLB betting model agrees with me. We project this game a full run below and will probably get there if the Boston offenses doesn’t go nuts.
