Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a normal night of MLB action Tuesday with most of the games starting in the evening. That gives us plenty of time to get our bets down, but some of the plays are moving already. After checking the MLB Betting Model, I realized we do not have a lot of value left. I had to use the FTNBets Prop Shop to make sure I was getting the best price on each play as some of them jumped just in the timeframe when I was researching today’s slate. I did find some value with a play in three different markets. They are listed below in our MLB Best Bets for Tuesday.
Best MLB Strikeout Bet
MacKenzie Gore Under 17.5 Total Outs
This is not an easy matchup for MacKenzie Gore. The Cardinals have a few big right-handed bats that profile well against him. Gore has failed to reach 100 pitches in either of his last two starts, which also gives me some pause here. Gore is walking and striking out a lot of batters this year. That is bad for his chances to go deep into games. Walks require at least four pitches and strikeouts three. Most likely he runs some of these counts up a bit and that will also limit the number of outs he can potentially get. Multiple arrows are pointing red on Gore, which means he would have to overcome multiple negatives in order to put up a top tier performance and cover his total outs prop.
Best MLB Moneyline Bet
Kansas City Royals
The Royals take on the Tigers in what is basically a coin flip type of game. In fact, I prefer the Royals and so does our projection model. The payout on this is a juicy +130. Whenever I think the wrong team is favored, I am interested in placing a bet. When the wrong team is favored and the payout is a juicy +130, you almost have to do it.
Best MLB Total Bet
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics Under 9
This is the biggest edge we have at the moment in our run totals model. This was bet up initially to -120 before coming off at DraftKings and Borgata. I would expect it to get bet and drift back up. I would not chase beyond -120, but I obviously prefer the -115 if you can still find them at one of your books.
