2024 Wimbledon Betting Preview
Josh Gross
There are 15 games on the MLB slate Tuesday and plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and props.
The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and our Pick Tracker for all my picks and FTN’s picks.
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The Best MLB Props Today
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 Total Baes
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We’re picking on Chris Flexen as he checks in with a 5.13 ERA, 6.84 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9. The White Sox pitcher has walked three batters in each of his last two starts, and at least two in six of his last seven games. He has an outing over that span where he issued five free passes. When you’re walking three or four batters per nine innings, you’re bound to give up some crooked numbers.
Flexen has coughed up 79 hits in 79 innings thanks to an 80% contact rate. His 47% fly ball rate would be inside the top five if he had the innings to qualify. It’s a big reason why he’s allowed at least one homer in four straight starts and eight over his past eight outings. Of the 13 home runs he’s served up, nine have been to left-handed batters. In fact, lefties have a 53% fly ball rate against Flexen this season, and they’re slashing .282/.344/.590 with a .397 wOBA.
Enter Josh Naylor of the Cleveland Guardians, who has 20 homers on the season. Fifteen of those 20 homers have come against right-handed pitchers and 11 of them have come at home. Naylor’s rocking a .271/.356/.602 slash line with a .957 OPS and .331 ISO at home compared to a .222/.297/.426 line with a .724 OPS and .205 ISO on the road.
Progressive Field has suddenly turned into a home run friendly ballpark. According to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Progressive Field ranks fourth in doubles and fifth in home runs. They ranked 32nd (dead last) in home runs last season. So why the sudden change? Well, it could have something to do with some of the renovations to the ballpark, as they removed a section in right center, including a couple of walls in the middle level to make room for a terrace in right field. It’s possible the changes have allowed a wind tunnel to push the ball out. Look, it’s a small sample size, but it makes sense when you look at the chart below and you see Progressive Field has been at 100 (league average) or higher in the HR metric just eight times before this season since 1998. Five of those seasons came between 1998 and 2003. They were at 67 and 87 in the previous two seasons.
So yeah, I’m taking a shot on Josh Naylor to not only get two bases, but to go yard. Two bases for José Ramírez is also a bonus play for me. Don’t be surprised if he goes yard as well. It’s July 2, and Ramírez already has 23 homers, two fewer than he hit last season. 15 of those homers have been against RHP. He also has 24 extra base hits against righties.
Bonus
José Ramírez O 1.5 Total Bases
(-132, BetRivers)
Josh Naylor HR
(+340, FanDuel Sportsbook)
