Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are plenty of games to pick from on Tuesday since every team in the league is in action. It can be tough to narrow it all down, but that’s what we’re here to do with the help of the FTN Betting Model.
MLB Best Bets
Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts
(+135, MGM Sportsbook)
It’s been a strange season for Pablo Lopez because he’s sporting a 5.33 ERA, and that’s nowhere close to his xFIP, which is under 3.40. When that starts to normalize, he’ll pitch deeper into games (Lopez has only made it past five innings once in the past five games) and the strikeouts should follow. He’s still at a 26.3% K rate overall, and five Rays have swinging-strike rates of 12.3% or higher against the sweeper. That’s one of the main pitches when he faces a righty hitter, and Lopez uses the changeup more when he sees a lefty. Seven hitters are at 11.2% swinging-strike rates or higher against that pitch, and Tampa is in the top 10 in K rate against righties for the season. The ROI is too tempting to not take a shot here.
Tanner Houck Under 5.5 Hits
(+110, MGM Sportsbook)
This is a very reasonable line, but Tanner Houck has been under six hits allowed in nine of his 14 starts this year and has allowed six in two more starts. The Blue Jays aren’t going to strike out a ton, but they are also just 19th in batting average against righties, and Houck has a WHIP of under 1.00 against both sides of the plate. You could argue he’s even been a touch unlucky when he’s faced righty hitting since the BABIP is .314. Even then, the average is only .224 for righties, and Houck will face plenty of them in a righty-heavy Toronto lineup. Getting this for plus money while the FTN Model has an 11.68% edge is too good to pass up.
