MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
We have a typical Tuesday evening of MLB action ahead of us, with the earliest games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. We only have two games between teams that both have winning records. That seems a bit odd for a full 15-game slate, but the numbers don’t lie. We had quite a few edges popping up early in our MLB Player Prop Model, but I tend to bet those later on in the day. For the early bets, I want to get my money down on the best sides and totals before they move. That is where my two MLB Best Bets for Tuesday can be found. Both of them currently sit at plus money.
Best MLB Moneyline Bet
Los Angeles Angels
The Texas Rangers are off to a blazing hot start to the 2023 season, but the odds here are off. The wrong team is favored to win this game. Jaime Barría was a bullpen arm, but he’s made a few starts recently and pitched incredibly well. His ERA is under two and he’s given the Angels a couple of 5-inning starts with two or fewer runs allowed in the past couple weeks. Our MLB Betting Model has the Angels projected at 4.9 runs and the Rangers at just 4.5. This is why I said the wrong team is favored. Not only is the wrong team favored, but we are getting a nice +120 payout on the team that should be favored to win. Even if this was a coin flip, a +120 payout would be enough to warrant a bet. With the Angels’ chances of winning above 50%, that makes a plus money payout an amazing value proposition.
Best MLB Total Bet
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Under 7.5 Runs
Corbin Burnes and Pablo López are both solid to above-average pitchers. Minnesota is right around league average with a 102 wRC+. Milwaukee is well below with just a 91 wRC+ against RHP. Two good pitchers facing two weak offenses against their split is not a recipe for multiple runs to be scored. Milwaukee is also getting a downgrade for being on the road away from their hitter friendly Miller Park. Our MLB Betting Model has neither team reaching four runs today and a combined run total under 7. You can still find this at eight runs for -120 on some books, but the edge is slightly bigger for the under 7.5 at plus money.
