Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 10/18)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees

Guardians +1.5 -142 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tuesday night, the ALDS series between the Yankees and the Guardians comes down to the fifth and final game. The Yankees took Game 1 at home, but the Guardians stormed back and won Game 2 in the Bronx and Game 3 in Cleveland. The Yankees won Sunday night, and now we are set up for a winner-takes-all matchup at Yankee Stadium. 

The Guardians were able to win two games in come-from-behind fashion, but they hope they will not have to dig themselves out of a hole Tuesday. This team relies on its pitching staff to keep them in games, but they have used all their stud starters. The Guardians have a deep bullpen and will be able to get innings from their top bullpen pitchers. However, in order for Cleveland to win, they need to get more out of their offense. 

The Yankees won 99 games in the regular season and were the No. 2 seed in the AL, but it all comes down to this for New York. Over this series, the Yankees have exposed themselves as a team that lacks fundamentals. They are bad at fielding, they do not hustle, and they do not manufacture runs besides hitting the long ball. If I were a Yankee fan, I’d be nervous. 

Aaron Civale will make a start and will log his first innings of the 2022 postseason. Civale made a start against the Yankees in Cleveland back in July and he allowed four runs on five hits in six innings in a Guardian loss. I do not expect Civale to come close to pitching six innings. At the first sign of trouble, they will move on from him and go deeper into their bullpen. On the road in 2022, Civale has a 5.88 ERA, a .265 batting average against, a .426 slugging percentage against, a 1.29 WHIP and a 3.77 FIP.

Nestor Cortes will make the start for the Yankees at home. In his Game 3 start, Cortes allowed two runs on six hits with three walks. Cortes was amazing at minimizing baserunners at home this season, but his game-three performance was not the best. The Yankees bullpen is rested, but it is not great, so they would love to get six innings out of Cortes. 

The Yankees at one point looked like a juggernaut, but if you have been keeping tabs on this team all year as I have, this team, simply, does not look good right now. They do not run out of the batter’s box, they make errors, they do not get timely hits, and their bullpen is an implosion waiting to happen. Yes, this team has the power to hang in games, but they are not the better team. You are better off laying juice and taking the Guardians +1.5. You can get the better team with a run and a half to back it up. 

Bet: CLE +1.5 -142 (FanDuel Sportsbook)