Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Thursday 9/7)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

Cardinals +290 @ Braves -360 – Total 10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

I wish we could bet another Mariners team total over at Great American Ball Park this Thursday evening, but unfortunately Seattle is in Tampa for a four-game set against the Rays. Instead let’s head to the K Market in Atlanta as the Cardinals and Braves finish off their series. Strikeout props have been very good to the FTN crew this season, let’s get into it before this number moves any more than it has.

After dealing with injuries for most of this season, Max Fried seems to have found his ace-form. Since being activated from the Injured List in early August, the southpaw is 4-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 2.89 FIP in his last six starts (34.2 IP). Fried has found his strikeout groove as well, hitting this number in three straight games, including 10 punchouts against a disciplined Dodgers club that carries the eighth-lowest K rate against lefties over the last 30 days. The 29-year-old has punched out 27% of batters in that stretch. Fried has three pitches with a strikeout rate over 36% this season: curveball (36.6%), changeup (39.5%) and his seldom used sweeper (37.5%). The lefty has averaged 97 pitches over his last four starts, and I expect him to pitch six innings or throw about 100 pitches with an overused Braves bullpen behind him.

Over the last 30 days, this Cardinals club sits near the middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage — ranking 14th at 22.6%. Without much to play for (except getting Adam Wainwright his 200th career win),St. Louis is giving a bunch of their young players regular playing time. The projected Cardinals lineup has six batters with a strikeout percentage of 24.% or higher against lefties this season, with three hitters posting a punchout percentage above 30%. Some of these are indeed small samples but these players have displayed high strikeout rates at the minor league level as well. Over the last 14 days, the Cardinals have posted the third-highest K percentage overall at 26.6%, as they’ve had trouble making contact on pitches inside the strike zone with an 84% X-Contact percentage.

I’m projecting Fried to pitch about six innings and punchout the six batters we need to cash Thursday night. Laz Diaz is working the plate in this one and the veteran ump should steal a few strikes for us. It’s always nice when Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with our bet; as Frank projects Fried for 6.18 punchouts. I personally played this at -112 but I still see value at -132 – I wouldn’t play higher than -145. There are a couple shops still hanging better than -130, use the FTN Prop Shop to grab the best number available.