Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 6/8)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 

Red Sox +120 @ Guardians -140 — Total 8.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

After missing a chunk of this season on the IL with an oblique strain, Aaron Civale makes his second start since being activated and his fourth start of the season overall. Civale came on strong in the second half of last season, posting a 3.35 ERA and 3.41 FIP after the All-Star break. Through 17.2 innings pitched this season the 27-year-old has picked up where he left off, posting a 2.04 ERA and 2.61 FIP. Civale has actually shown reverse splits so far in his MLB career, which matters since the Red Sox are expected to feature seven left-handed hitters in Thursday’s lineup. The Guardians starter has posted a .288 wOBA and 3.64 FIP against left-handed batters in his career, with righties posting a .327 wOBA and 4.51 FIP through 370.2 career MLB innings. Steamer projects the righty to pitch to a 4.09 ERA the rest of the season. 

Matthew Dermody is on the bump for Boston Thursday night. The 32-year-old is making his first big-league start. The righty has struggled in his long baseball career, posting a 4.07 ERA in AAA, and 5.13 ERA in over 100 innings in the KBO and in the Japanese League. Dermody has a 5.60 ERA and 5.97 FIP in 27.1 MLB innings. Dermody could be followed by Nick Pivetta or Corey Kluber if he struggles with this Guardians lineup. 

The Red Sox have the advantage over the Guardians at the dish. Boston has a 103 wRC+ (ninth best) against right-handed pitching this season, while Cleveland has posted a 84 wRC+ (28th) against southpaws. It might not be as big of an advantage as you think; over the last month, Boston has 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, while the Guardians have 93 wRC+ (21st) against lefties.

I’m projecting a quality start from Aaron Civale today while the Guardians offense should be able to get to the 32-year-old journeyman on the mound for Boston. Cleveland also has the advantage was it comes to the bullpen and an even larger upper hand when it comes to defense. Be sure to check out FTN’s Live Odds screen to find the best number on the market.

Bet

Guardians (-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)