Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 5/4)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals 

Orioles -175 @ Royals +150 — Total 9 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We go back to the strikeout market this Thursday afternoon, as we look to bounce back following our loss on Joey Lucchesi Wednesday. Lucchesi being pulled after 46 pitches was both a surprise to me and the lefty himself, as Buck Showalter had plans of his own. But we move on, as we back a rookie righty that has cashed this number in four straight starts. I like the O’s to win as well (I played Baltimore -1), but let’s focus on one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez. 

The former top pitching prospect in baseball has struck out 32.4% of batters so far in 2023, seventh in the majors (min. 20 innings). Rodriguez’ chase rate ranks in the 76th percentile and will only improve as he settles in against major league competition. The 23-year-old features two pitches with a strikeout rate over 35% — with his slider carrying a 35.7% K% and 42.4% K% with his changeup. This bodes well for Grayson as the Royals have racked up the 10th-most K’s against changeups this season. 

The Royals’ 25.2% K% against right-handed pitching this season is the fifth highest in the game and their 68 wRC+ ranks dead last. Overall, KC has the second-highest swing percentage on pitches outside the strike zone at 35.6% while having the seventh-lowest contact percentage on those swings outside the zone at 59.9% – obviously not a great combination. Kansas City also carries the second-highest swinging strike percentage at 12.7%. 

Rodriguez shouldn’t have a problem racking up the six punchouts against this free-swinging Royals lineup as I have him projected for about six innings. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market, and go O’s.

Bet

Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 K’s (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)