Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It’s Sunday, which means we have a large slate of MLB games. There’s one edge sticking out to me in particular, although I know the FTN MLB Betting model will probably have a few more before the end of the day. The FTN strikeout model has also been hot, so make sure to check that out if you’re looking to make some plays as well.
Both models tend to update early in the morning, so that’s the best time to get some plays before the lines start moving. Here’s my best bet in the MLB Sunday.
MLB Best Bet Today
New York Yankees ML
(-116 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Yankees offense was dreadful yesterday, drumming up just three hits and getting shut out by the Texas Rangers. Former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi and the bullpen shut them down. I like the matchup for the Yankees much better today. They face Martín Pérez, who has been extremely lucky to start the season. Perez has just a 2.60 ERA through his first five starts of the season. That’s obviously good, but the underlying numbers paint a much different picture. Perez has a xFIP of 4.16. His lifetime ERA is in that same range at 4.40, which means the outlier here is his current 2.60 ERA. Perez has allowed more than a hit per inning in every start this year and has a 2.60 BB/9 on top of that. He’s only made it into the sixth inning in one start this year. His lifetime xFIP and ERA are both over 4.40, so I am not buying the fact he is a guy who can “get out of trouble.” He’s been able to recently, but things always regress to the mean, positively or negatively. His ground-ball prowess can save him at times, but it can also lead to rallies as teams rack up hits and move baserunners over.
The Yankees current roster is littered with guys who hit left-handed pitching well. The players on the active roster since 2021 own a 114 wRC+ score and just an 18.4% K rate. That is the fifth-best wRC+ score and tied with the Astros for the lowest K% against LHP over that stretch. The Yankees have a heavy right-handed lineup, which is why the numbers look so much better when they face a southpaw. Guys like Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have long track records of success against LHP. Even a lefty like Anthony Rizzo has done well in left-handed situations. Perez isn’t a guy who gives up a lot of home runs, but the Yankees are a more disciplined hitting team vs. LHP, which is a negative for a guy like Perez who lacks the strikeout pitches necessary to limit damage. I know the offense was stagnant yesterday, but this is a great spot for them to turn that around.
On the other side, the Yankees are throwing “Nasty” Nestor Cortes today. Cortes is a lefty, and the Rangers have struck out a ton against southpaws since 2021. The 24.6% strikeout rate is third-worst for any active roster over that stretch, behind only the Brewers and Giants. Nestor has that in his back pocket if he gets in trouble, while Perez has to rely on pitching to contact to get himself out of jams. Cortes hasn’t been lights out in 2023, but there are signs he’s due for improvement. His current BABIP sits at .289, more than 50 basis points above where it sat in 2022. His FB/HR rate is also down from over 8% last year to just over 6% this season. He’s also seen a dip in his BB/9 rate from 2.16 to just 1.59. His ERA is 3.60, but his xERA is 2.79. That’s almost a full run below where it was. There should be regression to the mean here, which is a positive for Nestor and the Yankees today.
