Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 8/27)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 K’s -148 (Caesars)
Rays -125 @ Red Sox +112 Total 8.5 (Caesars)

I’m going to keep this writeup short since I’m expecting this number to move a good amount. We’re betting Jeffrey Springs over 4.5 K’s against the Red Sox at Fenway.

The left-hander Springs is primarily a three pitch pitcher, he features: four-seam fastball (36.1%), change-up (33.4%) and a slider (25.9%). His two best strikeout pitches are his changeup and fastball. Springs’ changeup strikeout percentage is slightly over 31% and the Red Sox rank eighth in punchouts versus that pitch. The southpaw has a 29.2% strikeout percentage with his 4-seam fastball and the Red Sox have the third most strikeouts against fastballs this season. The 29-year-old has the ninth-highest strikeout percentage and the 10^th-highest swinging strike percentage in the American League. Springs’ 29.2% called-strikes plus whiff percentage ranks 11th in the AL. 

The Red Sox were a fairly disciplined team at the dish for most of the year. They rank 15th in strikeouts per game for the season, averaging 8.45. However, over their last 45 games, they’ve averaged 9.33 strikeouts per game. Boston has the seventh highest K rate since July 1st against southpaws at 25.8%. 

The Red Sox should feature seven right-handed hitters in the lineup but that actually works in Springs’ favor. Springs is showing reverse splits when it comes to punchouts this season, he’s striking out 28.4% of righties this year, compared to 21.4% of lefties. 

I’m projecting Springs to pitch into the sixth tonight and finish with six punchouts. Springs’ 96th percentile chase rate should be on full display this afternoon at Fenway. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market. 

Bet: Jeffrey Springs Over 4.5 Ks -148 (Caesars)