Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Twins (-164) at Tigers (+138) – Total 8 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
The Twins enter play Saturday only one game above .500 but lead the American League Central by two games over the Guardians and sit 5.5 games ahead of the third-place Tigers. Pablo López takes the mound for the Twins, who have won their last three games, and I’ve found an edge in the strikeout market.
López is enjoying a breakout in his first season with the Twins, as he’s posted a career-high 29.5% K rate. López’s strikeout percentage is the fifth-highest in the show, and he’s gone over this number in 10 of his 15 starts this season – missing by the hook three times. Sure his ERA is high at 4.40, but all of his advanced stats show positive regression should help lower that figure. López began throwing a sweeper after arriving in Minnesota, and it’s been a tough pitch for batters to make contact with. López’s sweeper has a 38.8% whiff rate and a 39.7% K rate – it’s his best punchout pitch. It’s also his second-most thrown pitch at 21.7%. López’s swinging-strike percentage is also a career-best, sitting at 14.4%, fifth-best in MLB and 2.4% higher than his career average. The 27-year-old is inducing more swings than he has in his career while lowering his contact on pitches outside the strike zone. His contact rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and his whiff rate sits in the 79th percentile.
Detroit’s 23.9% K rate against right-handed pitchers is the seventh-highest in MLB, and over the last 30 days, that number sits at 24.5%. Not many clubs have put up worse discipline metrics than the Tigers over the last 14 days. The Tigers’ swinging-strike percentage is at 13.1% over that stretch. They’re chasing too many pitches (35%) and not making enough contact on pitches inside the strike zone (82.6%). I mentioned López’s new devastating sweeper – the Tigers have the third-highest strikeout percentage against that pitch at 39.6%. Only three left-handed hitters are projected to be in Detroit’s lineup tonight, which bodes well for López, as his K% is over 9% higher against righties.
I’m projecting Pablo to pitch six-plus innings Saturday evening and K the seven Tigers we need to cash. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet: Pablo López Over 6.5 Ks (-130, FanDuel Sportsbook)
