Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 6/10)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians 

Astros +118 @ Guardians -140 — Total 8 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Triston McKenzie makes his second start of the 2023 season after missing the first two months of the year with a shoulder strain. Dr. Sticks threw five shutout innings in his season debut, striking out 10 Twins. While punchouts will be tougher to come by in this matchup against the Astros, I was close on McKenzie’s over 5.5 strikeouts but ended up on the Guardians’ moneyline. The 25-year-old posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.57 SIERA in 191.1 innings last season. The projections expect some regression for the righty but I’m still expecting a big year from McKenzie. 

JP France takes the ball for the Astros Saturday after posting a 3.44 ERA in his first 34 MLB innings. It’s safe to expect some regression from France, as he has an 86.1% LOB% and .242 BABIP. That’s a big reason for his 5.13 FIP and 4.27 SIERA — projections have France posting about a 4.60 ERA the rest of the season. France hasn’t displayed the big strikeout stuff he showed in the minors, and I don’t think that changes against a great contact team like Cleveland. The rookie has shown reverse splits through his first 34 innings, but it’s a small sample and I’m curious to see how many lefties the Guardians feature in Saturday’s lineup. 

The Guardians’ offense got off to a slow start this season. Overall they have an 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching but over the last month that number has climbed to 94 – only 6% below the league average. The Stros haven’t been that much better against right-handed pitching this season – posting a 95 wRC+ this year but they did just lose one of the best hitters in baseball in Yordan Alvarez. Houston scored nine runs Friday, but their offense is going to suffer with Alvarez on the injured list. 

I usually find myself backing the Astros as small underdogs, but this is one of the rare times where I find myself fading them. I’m projecting a quality start from Triston McKenzie while the Guardians’ offense should be able to do enough damage against France to pull out the win. Be sure to check out FTN’s Live Odds screen to find the best number on the market.

Bet

Guardians -140 (Caesars Sportsbook)