Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Saturday 4/1)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Zach Eflin Over 4.5 K’s, -155

Tigers +155 @ Rays -180 Total 7

Our 2023 MLB season got off to a great start Thursday with a winner on the Atlanta Braves team total over. It was a little sweatier than it needed to be as the Braves stranded a bunch of runners in scoring position early and often, but we still cashed. We head to St. Petersburg Saturday as the Rays host the Tigers. Books opened this total at 8, and a ton of money on the under has dropped it to 7. The Rays’ $40 million man Zach Eflin makes his Tampa debut, and the game is an afternoon one, so I’m going to keep this brief.

Eflin isn’t known as a huge strikeout guy but he’s more than capable of getting to five versus this Tigers lineup that posted the fourth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers last season at 24.7%. It’s not as if Detroit acquired a number of disciplined hitters in the offseason, as Saturday’s Tigers lineup features seven hitters with strikeout percentages over 24% for their careers:

Image via Fangraphs

Full disclosure: I bet this at -145 Saturday morning, but I’ll track it at -155 since it’s currently the best available. I wouldn’t play this any higher than -165. I’m projecting Eflin to work into the sixth inning and punch out the five Tigers we need to cash. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.