Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 11/5)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros

Zack Wheeler Under 5.5 K’s (-148, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phillies +124 @ Astros -146 – Total 7 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

First pitch of Game 6 of the World Series is at 8:03 p.m. ET Saturday night in Houston, in what could be the final MLB game until Spring Training in February. The Astros lead the best-of-seven series 3-2, with lefty Framber Valdez on the bump, up against Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler. 

Wheeler was originally expected to start Game 5 in Philadelphia but was pushed back due to what the Phillies are calling “fatigue.” The righty’s velocity was down in Game 2 of the World Series, but the Phillies report his bullpen session was fine on Thursday, and he’ll start Game 6. When asked if he’s 100%, Wheeler said, “I don’t think anyone feels 100% right now.” 

We cashed Wheeler’s under 17.5 Outs Recorded in Game 2, and they opened Wheeler’s Game 6 outs prop at 15.5. While I still lean under there, I like the Wheeler’s under 5.5 strikeouts more. Wheeler finished with three strikeouts in Game 2, and Nola is the only Phillies starter to strikeout more than four batters in the World Series (Nola had five in Game 1). 

I thought they’d open this prop at 4.5, but a couple shops opened Wheeler’s K prop at 5.5 Friday, and I went ahead and bet that. 

While the Astros struck out at the sixth-lowest rate this season against right-handed pitching (20.4%), we’ve seen their K% in the postseason increase to 23% overall (19.5% overall in the regular season). They’re still one of the most disciplined teams that regularly puts the ball in play and they’re getting their second look at Wheeler in a week. 

I’d love a Game 7 but I’ll be rooting to cash a few of my Astros bets tonight and call it a season. I’m projecting Wheeler to pitch just under five innings and finish with four strikeouts. Only a couple books have a 5.5, so be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number available. I still think there is value in the 4.5 at plus-money, as I might end up adding half a unit on that as well. 

Bet: Zack Wheeler Under 5.5 K’s -148