MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
After a heartbreaking extra-innings walkoff loss in Game 1, the Arizona Diamondbacks will look to bounce back tonight in Arlington. Corey Seager showed his postseason clutch genes once again with a two-run HR in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the game. Adolis Garcia then placed the finishing touches with his walkoff HR in the bottom of the 11th.
Tonight’s pitching matchup will consist of two men who’ve stepped up to challenge for their teams during this postseason run, with lights out performances on the mound. Merrill Kelly will get the start for Arizona, and Jordan Montgomery will get the nod for the Rangers. Kelly has been on a tear in his postseason debut. He enters 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA across 17 innings pitched.
Though Kelly has been excellent in the playoffs, his problem with walks has still shown throughout every start. Kelly’s approach on the mound is to live on the edges, and that comes with the risk of missing his spots often and can cause issues with a disciplined lineup. The Rangers have been just that. Texas finished the regular season with the eighth-highest walk rate against RHP and has raised that to second-best over the last 30 days. Kelly has walked at least two hitters in eight-straight starts and has walked at least three in six of his last 10.
Montgomery has been just as great, if not better than Kelly this postseason. He enters 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA across 25 innings. Montgomery has seen this D-backs lineup twice this season, with the last appearance being an eight-inning gem in Arizona, allowing no earned runs. Tonight I’ll look for Montgomery to keep the Arizona bats in check once again, while Kelly and his free pass issues allow the Rangers to get on the board early to secure a 2-0 World Series lead.
Best Bet
Merrill Kelly 2+ Walks / Rangers ML SGP
(+150, DraftKings Sportsbook)
