Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 9/4)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets. Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday. 

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The Best MLB Props

Corbin Burnes OVER 6.5 K 

(+100, PointsBet)

Corbin Burnes has had an up-and-down season this year, but I like his spot on the road in Pittsburgh in start No. 28 of the season. Over his 165 innings, Burnes has a 9.11 K/9 and 24.9 K%. Those are respectable numbers, but both marks are his lowest totals since his rookie season. His 3.16 BB/9 is the highest it’s been since 2020, and it’s led to a 3.55 ERA to date, his highest ERA since his sophomore season in 2019. 

However, Burnes is rocking a 2.95 ERA over 94.2 innings on the road compared to 4.35 over 70.1 home innings. Opponents are slashing .192/.268/.286 with a .251 wOBA on the road, and his walks and HR/FB ratios are much lower away from American Family Field. 

In his last two road starts, he has 16 strikeouts over 14 innings and has only allowed one earned run. Those starts came against the Cubs and Dodgers. In fact, Burnes has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his past six outings on the road. He had 7+ strikeouts in five of those showings (double-digits twice), including a start at PNC Park where he fanned seven Pirates over seven innings and allowed one hit.

Pittsburgh ranks 12th in strikeout percentage on the season and over the last 30 days, but they’re inside the top 10 against RHP (23.5%). They also had a top-10 strikeout rate in the month of August (24.5.%). The Pirates have been awful at home, as they check in 27th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, 25th in OPS and 28th in wRC+.

Bonus

• Corbin Burnes Record a Win (-105, DraftKings)
• Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-113, Unibet)