NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
Tyler Wells Over 4.5 Ks -112 (FanDuel)
Tigers +180 @ Orioles -215 – Total 8 (FanDuel)
Let’s keep this great run on props going. I’m hitting about 58% (+36.35x) on MLB props this season with the large majority being on strikeout props. While I like the O’s to win tonight, I’m not going to lay the -215 on the moneyline. Instead, I’ve identified an edge in the K market at Camden Yards, as the Tigers and Orioles begin a three-game set in Baltimore Monday night.
If it seems like I’m picking on the Detroit Tigers, I’ll be honest: I clearly am. The Tigers enter Monday’s series with the third-highest strikeout percentage in baseball this season at 25.3% against righties. Since the start of August, the Tigers have actually increased their strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitchers to 28.1%, the highest in MLB. Overall, nobody swings more than the Detroit Tigers, and few teams make less contact, as the Tigers have the fourth-lowest contact percentage. It’s no surprise to see the Tigers prone to so many strikeouts when you notice they also have the highest swing percentage outside the strike zone. Overall Detroit has the third-highest swinging-strike percentage in baseball.
Tyler Wells is on the bump for the O’s tonight, and his strikeout numbers might not wow you, but it’s not because he doesn’t have great stuff. Wells has been on an innings watch for most of this season, and that is why his K prop opened at only 4.5 versus the Tigers. Wells has looked great since coming off the IL, posting a 71% Z-Contact% and 15.5% SwStr% in those two starts. Wells’ K% has actually increased by about 5% since the All-Star Break, and he should have an easy time turning this free-swinging Tigers lineup over.
The righty features three pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup), his slider is his second-most thrown pitch (26.8%), and it’s his best strikeout pitch. That’s bad news for the Tigers, as they have the seventh-most punchouts in baseball against sliders. The Tigers should feature five lefties in tonight’s lineup, but Wells has actually shown reverse splits this season. His strikeout percentage is surprisingly 7% higher versus lefties in 2022.
I’m projecting Tyler Wells to pitch five-plus innings and strike out the five batters we need to cash our bet. I am a little concerned about how long Orioles manager Brandon Hyde will leave Wells out there, but this isn’t a big number to eclipse. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the board.
Bet: Tyler Wells Over 4.5 Ks -112
