Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 9/12)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

Spencer Strider Over 7.5 Ks +105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Braves -180 @ Giants +155 – Total 7 (Caesars)

NL Rookie of the Year favorite Spencer Strider makes his 19th start of the season Monday night, as the Braves open up a three-game set in San Francisco. The righty has been elite in his first season in the bigs. His K% ranks in the 99th percentile and his whiff percentage ranks in the 95th percentile. Strider doesn’t have the innings to qualify for the MLB leaderboard, so I went ahead and set the minimum innings to 120, and here’s where the rookie ranks:

• 38.1% K rate (1st in MLB)
• 29.6% K-BB% (1st in MLB)
• 78.5% Z-Contact% (3rd in MLB)
• 15.5% SwStr% (Tied 3rd in MLB)

Strider is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, featuring his fastball 57% of the time and his slider about 28%. We know Strider can paint with his 100+ fastball, but his slider is also elite. Batters swing at Strider’s slider just over 46% of the time, and it has a 24.7% swinging-strike percentage and called-strikes-plus-whiff percentage of 39.2%. 

By wRC+, this Giants offense has been 9% below league average versus right-handed pitching since August 1, but much worse in terms of strikeouts. San Francisco’s 24.2% strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitchers ranks sixth worst in MLB since the start of August. Overall, the Giants average the fifth-most punchouts in baseball at 8.91. I mentioned Strider’s dominant slider above, and it doesn’t bode well for San Francisco. The Giants also enter tonight’s matchup with the fifth-most strikeouts in baseball versus sliders. Their lineup could be in for a long night versus Strider and this stingy Braves bullpen. 

Strider should be able to pitch into the sixth inning against this Giants lineup, and I have him projected for more than eight strikeouts. Alex Blickle’s Strikeout Model at FTN agrees with this over. Alex’s K Model projects the rookie for over 9 Ks. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the board.

Bet: Spencer Strider 7.5 Ks +105