Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 7/8)


There are seven games on the MLB slate Monday and plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and props. 

The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and our Pick Tracker for all my picks and FTN’s picks. 

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The Best MLB Props Today

Jose Miranda Over 1.5 Total Bases 

(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Since it worked out so well for us last week, we’re picking on Chris Flexen again this week. I’m not going to lie — attacking Flexen in the betting and MLB DFS market is something I do at least once a week. The White Sox’ pitcher carries a 5.08 ERA into his 17th start of the season. He has a 47% fly ball rate and 79% contact rate on the year, and both of those marks are among the leaders. Flexen has a 5.25 ERA at home this season where he’s allowed 48 hits in his 48 innings, including eight home runs and 19 extra base hits. 

There are several props I like in this game, and I listed a few of them below. I’m leading with Jose Miranda because of his splits and he’s extremely hot at the moment. The Twins’ corner infielder leads Minnesota with 60 hits, 16 doubles, 24 extra base hits and a .366 average against right-handed pitchers. He also checks in with a team-high .414 OBP, 1.018 OPS and .433 wOBA against righties. Miranda had a 5-for-5 game, and 4-for-4 showing last week. He enters on a 10-game hit streak and he’s racked up 19 total bases in his last four games.

Below you’ll see I’m on Willi Castro (switch-hitter) because I expect him to leadoff and Max Kepler because lefty bats have had their way with Flexen. The righty has issued at least one home run in each of his last five starts and seven total. Ten of his 15 homers have been against lefties as they have a 52% fly ball rate and 35% hard hit rate against him. Flexen has also walked at least two batters in four of his past five starts and six of his last eight. He’s walking nearly four batters per nine innings, which is part of the reason he’s allowed at least three earned runs in six of his past 10 outings. All those walks usually lead to crooked numbers. Flexen’s walk prop is my second favorite prop on this slate.

As for the total, the Twins rank 10th in average, fifth in ISO, and seventh in SLG, OBP, wOBA and wRC+ against righties. They also rank fifth in runs and seventh in homers against RHP. They’ve won eight of their last 11 games and they’re averaging 6.9 runs per game over that span. Minnesota has scored 36 runs in its last four games (9-plus in three of those games).

These bonus picks are ranked in order of how I like them.


Chris Flexen O 1.5 Walks Allowed

(-145, BetMGM)

Willi Castro O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs

(-145, BetMGM)

Max Kepler O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs

(-130, BetMGM)

Minnesota Twins O 5.5 Runs Scored 

(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Max Kepler Home Run

(+390, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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