Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
There are 13 games on the MLB slate Monday and plenty of action to be had around the diamond. Below you’ll see a list of my favorite MLB picks and props.
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The Best MLB Props Today
Houston Astros Over 4.5 Runs
(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Houston Astros are heating up, and they’re now tied atop the AL West thanks to a 19-7 record over their last 26 games. Over the past month, they rank third in runs scored (126) and fifth in average (.262). They’re also top 10 on the season in wOBA against left-handed pitchers. That’s great news for them, as they’ll see pitches from a high-contact lefty Monday in Oakland.
Hogan Harris checks in with a 3.40 ERA but a 5.22 xFIP. He’s coughed up 46 hits in 47.2 innings thanks to an alarming 82% contact rate. Harris also has a 43% fly ball rate which has led to six homers in eight starts. Harris gets saved at times pitching in Oakland, but there’s no reason to think Houston can’t get him when you dive into his command issues.
Harris has a 35:23 K:BB ratio on the season, which works out to a 6.61 K/9 and 4.34 BB/9. The Athletics’ pitcher has issued at least one walk in all eight of his starts and he’s issued nine free passes in his last two starts. When you’re walking three or four batters per nine innings, you tend to have innings in which you allow multiple runs. The Astros have the second-lowest K rate in baseball and their 78.8% contact rate is the fourth highest.
Consider Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez O 1.5 Hits, Runs & RBI. Bregman has hits in 11 of his last 13 games, and he’s scored eight runs in his last nine games. He also has 10 extra base hits against lefties, which ranks second on the team behind Álvarez. I wouldn’t worry about the lefty-on-lefty matchup with Álvarez. The Astros’ outfielder has five homers and a .353/.410/.580 slash line as well as a .419 wOBA against southpaws. Left-handed hitters have a .306 average and .398 wOBA vs. Harris.
Bonus
Alex Bregman O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI
(-145, BetMGM)
Yordan Álvarez O 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI
(-150, BetMGM)
