Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 7/1)

Houston Astros (-145)  @ Toronto Blue Jays (+120) 

Total 9.5, (BetMGM)

The Nationals came through early for us in San Diego last week to push our writeup record to 6-2 on the season. With the Fourth of July falling on a normal off and travel day for clubs, we’re limited to only three games on today’s MLB slate. 

Houston’s Hunter Brown got off to an abysmal start to the season, posting an 8.89 ERA and 5.50 FIP through his first seven starts. Thanks to a couple tweaks, the 25-year-old has turned his season around. Over his last 43 innings (seven starts), Brown has posted a 1.47 ERA, which is backed by a 3.04 FIP and 3.05 SIERA. The strikeouts have returned as well, as he’s struck out over 29% of batters over that stretch. 

The Blue Jays have been solid at the dish lately, carried by their franchise player Vladimir Guerrero Jr. As a team, their 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the last 14 days ranks 11th in MLB. They also rank 13th in runs over that span. In June, they slashed .243/.313/.381 with an .138 ISO against right-handed pitching as a team. They were league average for the month with a wRC+ of 100. 

The FTN MLB Model sees this as a tossup with the Astros barely beating out the Blue Jays. 

I like Houston to win tonight in Toronto, but the Astros will need some distance out of Brown. The bullpen has been overused lately, as seven of their nine arms saw action yesterday in New York. Five of those arms were used in back-to-back games or have appeared in two of the last three games. We’re not backing Brown here simply because the team needs distance. The righty has gone six innings or more in seven straight starts and should be able to record a quality start tonight in Toronto. Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available lines. 

Best Bet

Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs -120 (BetMGM)