Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/15)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox 

Mariners -124 @ Red Sox +106 – Total 10 
FanDuel Sportsbook

We head to Fenway Park Monday night, as the Mariners and Red Sox begin a three-game set. Seattle has been playing better ball lately after a slow start to the season. At the same time, Boston looks to bounce back after being swept at home by the Cardinals. We won’t bet a side in this one, but I found an edge in the strikeout market. 

Only the Athletics and Padres have a higher strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching than the Mariners, and it’s not by much. Seattle’s 25.2% K rate sits 0.5% behind Oakland’s. Overall, the Mariners’ swing percentage ranks in the middle of the pack. However, they’ve had trouble making contact on both pitches inside and outside the strike zone when they do swing. Their 84.5% Z-contact% ranks ninth-worst in the majors, and their 60.8% O-contact% is eighth-worst. Nobody in baseball averages more strikeouts than Seattle at 9.70, and that number is even higher on the road at 10.28 (second-most). 

Tanner Houck’s stat line won’t blow you away, but all of his advanced numbers show positive regression is on the way, including his strikeout percentage. The 26-year-old-righty’s 20.6% K rate is a career-low, but according to Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard, four of Houck’s five pitches show a higher-deserved strikeout percentage than they have currently. Houck’s slider is his most featured pitch, and it has the second-best K% of all at 25%. Eight Mariners have a whiff% over 25% against sliders this season, while five of them sit at 35% or above. The M’s have a 30.2% K rate against sliders this season, eighth highest in the majors. This bodes well for Houck cashing the over on his K Prop. 

While Houck’s punchout numbers won’t blow you away, this isn’t a big number to eclipse against a club that struggles swinging and missing. I’m projecting Houck to pitch five-plus innings and K at least five Mariners. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; he projects Houck for 5.41 Ks Monday night. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet: Tanner Houck Over 4.5 Ks -120