Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 4/22)

We have a solid slate of MLB action Monday, so let’s get off to a winning start. Below is my best bet of the day.

Detroit Tigers -115  @ –105 Tampa Bay Rays

Zack Littell, over 4.5 strikeouts

(BetMGM)

Our first writeup got off to a great start, as the Braves cashed our team total over. Today, we’re jumping into the strikeout market and backing Rays right-handed pitcher Zack Littell against the Detroit Tigers. Littell isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but his K rate (24.7%) is above average, as is his swinging-strike percentage (10.9%). Five punchouts isn’t a big number for the 28-year-old to go over, and he’s done so in three of his first four starts. Detroit presents a good matchup, as there are seven batters in the Tigers projected lineup with a strikeout percentage higher than league average. It’s always nice when the  MLB FTN Model agrees; it has Littell projected for 5.1 punchouts. 

Tigers 

• 7th-highest K% vs right-handed hitters: 24.9% 
• 5th-lowest contact% on pitches outside the strike zone: 60.1%
• Bottom-10 contact% inside the strike zone: 84.9%
• 8th-highest swinging-strike%: 11.2%
• 4th-highest called-strike percentage 18% 

Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to find the best available lines. Most shops have bumped this up to 5.5 but there are a few 4.5s out there, and I’d bet it up to 4.5 at -165.

Best Bet: Zack Littell Over 4.5 Ks (-155)