Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a solid slate of MLB action Monday, so let’s get off to a winning start. Below is my best bet of the day.
Detroit Tigers -115 @ –105 Tampa Bay Rays
Zack Littell, over 4.5 strikeouts
(BetMGM)
Our first writeup got off to a great start, as the Braves cashed our team total over. Today, we’re jumping into the strikeout market and backing Rays right-handed pitcher Zack Littell against the Detroit Tigers. Littell isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but his K rate (24.7%) is above average, as is his swinging-strike percentage (10.9%). Five punchouts isn’t a big number for the 28-year-old to go over, and he’s done so in three of his first four starts. Detroit presents a good matchup, as there are seven batters in the Tigers projected lineup with a strikeout percentage higher than league average. It’s always nice when the MLB FTN Model agrees; it has Littell projected for 5.1 punchouts.
Tigers
- 7th-highest K% vs right-handed hitters: 24.9%
- 5th-lowest contact% on pitches outside the strike zone: 60.1%
- Bottom-10 contact% inside the strike zone: 84.9%
- 8th-highest swinging-strike%: 11.2%
- 4th-highest called-strike percentage 18%
Be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to find the best available lines. Most shops have bumped this up to 5.5 but there are a few 4.5s out there, and I’d bet it up to 4.5 at -165.
Best Bet: Zack Littell Over 4.5 Ks (-155)
