Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card – for free!
Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks.
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Be sure to check out MLB Picks and Props at FTN Network with MLB Dream and myself as we share a few of our favorite MLB picks.
Meaney’s Season Record (2-0) – Does not include BONUS picks.
The Best MLB Props Bets
Los Angeles Angels OVER 5.5 Runs
(-110, FanDuel)
The over on Patrick Corbin’s 6.5 hit prop is also in play here. The lefty has allowed eight runs, two homers and 17 hits in nine innings. Corbin rocked a career high 11.0% Barrell rate and 80% contact rate last season. His strikeout rates continue to drop and his ERA continues to rise. The Angels are off to a pretty strong start on offense and they should be able to get to a bullpen that has a 5.45 ERA (22 runs and six homers in 36.1 innings).
BONUS
- Mike Trout OVER 1.5 Totals Bases (-105, BETMGM)
- Hunter Renfroe OVER 1.5 Total Baes (+110, DraftKings)
- Renfroe Home Run (+390, Caesars)
- Taylor Ward Run Scored (-125, Caesars)
Tampa Bay Rays OVER 4.5 Runs
(-110, DraftKings)
Heat check time! The undefeated Rays lead baseball in wOBA, SLG, HR and runs scored. They’ve beat up on some brutal pitching and it may carry over this week with the Red Sox on the schedule. Nick Pivetta coughed up two homers in five innings last week and he’s allowed at least 20 in five full seasons in the bigs. He served up 27 in 179.2 innings last season and 24 over 155 innings in 2021. Pivetta had a 61% fly ball rate in his first start, and he’s been above 42% in each of his last three seasons.
Framber Valdez OVER 5.5 K
(-134, FanDuel)
Valdez is coming off a spectacular season in which he supported a 2.82 ERA over a career high 200.1 innings. Along the way, he rocked a career best 11.3 swinging strike percentage. His strikeout percentage went from 21.9% to 23.5% in 2022. He’s just below a strikeout per inning pitcher for his career (8.72 K/9), but he’s racked up 13 punchouts in 12 innings so far this season. His fastball is up to 95 MPH and he’s missing more bats. Small sample, but Valdez has a career best 13.3 SwStr%, 70.9 Contact % and 36.1 O-Swing% this season. He’s also got a rock solid 66% ground ball rate for his career. The Astros’ pitcher took advantage of a weak Tigers lineup last week (7 IP, 2 ER, 9 K) and he’s in another good spot tonight. The Pirates are hitting lefties well but they’ve beat up on some bad pitching. So far through two weeks, they have the 12th highest K-Rate in baseball against southpaws (24.5%). The Pirates’ lineup just got a lot weaker with the loss of Oneil Cruz.
Sandy Alcantara OVER 6.5 K
(+106, FanDuel)
Sandy had a rough first start but he tossed a complete game shutout in his second outing. He only has seven strikeouts in 14.2 innings but was up against two contact hitting teams in the Mets and Twins. The Phillies have the lowest contact rate on the season and they have the second highest K% (28%) and highest SwStr% (13.3%).
