Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.
Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.
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The Best MLB Props Bets
Corbin Burnes OVER 6.5 K
(+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Diamondbacks have the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 19%, but Corbin Burnes is feeling it at the moment, and we’re getting pretty good value on his strikeout prop. The Brewers ace is finally at a strikeout per inning (8.93 K/9) on the season after rocking double-digit rates over his past couple of seasons (11.31 K/9 for his career and 12.61 in 2021). Burnes fanned five batters or fewer in six of his first seven starts but has at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven outings (32 in his last 27 innings). He faced Arizona earlier in the season and only allowed three hits over eight scoreless with eight punchouts.
James Paxton OVER 6.5 K
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
James Paxton is in a much better spot than Burnes since the Twins rank first in strikeout percentage. Minnesota is striking out 27% of the time this season and a league-high 30% over the last 30 days. Overall, the Twins rank third in SwStr% and CSW%. They are likely in for a few more swings and misses against Paxton. The Boston southpaw has 44 strikeouts in 32.0 innings and has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his six outings. In fact, Paxton has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his six outings and has never allowed more than six hits in a start this season. Minnesota ranks 28th in wOBA and wRC+ versus LHP. Only Milwaukee has a higher K rate against southpaws than Minnesota. Paxton has been well over a K/9 pitcher since 2016, but injuries have hurt him in the past.
