Best MLB Bets Today - Free (July 7/24)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.

Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday. Not only did we smash our MLB pick of the day last Monday, we hit on both bonus MLB props as well. We’re going to try our luck at a repeat performance.

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The Best MLB Prop Bets

Logan Allen Over 5.5 Strikeouts

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Check the FTN Bets Prop Shop before locking this MLB pick of the day, because I believe this number will move as we get closer to game time. I’d take it as high as -140 and I’d consider the over 6.5 at plus money should it get there.

Logan Allen has only topped five strikeouts in four of his 13 starts this season, but he checks in with a solid 9.49 K/9 over 67.1 innings, and the matchup is right. The rookie pitcher has faced some solid contact squads this season, yet he carries a respectable 3.21 ERA into his start against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are anything but a solid contact team.

The Royals are striking out 24.3% of the time (seventh-most) and 25% over the past month. Only the White Sox, Rockies and Twins have a higher swinging strike percentage than their 12.6% mark. They also have a 24.4% K-Rate against southpaws. Allen’s 3.34 BB/9 is concerning, and he’s walked at least two batters in six of his last seven starts, but the Royals aren’t a big threat to get on base. KC ranks in the bottom 10 in walk rate and OBP vs LHP.

This will be Allen’s second start since getting recalled last week. He fanned eight batters over five scoreless innings against the Pirates in his first start back. He only allowed one hit and one walk, and he bumped his SwStr% up to 11.7%. If he can limit the walks, he’ll pitch into the fifth or six innings, which would likely be enough for six strikeouts. This is the same pitcher who tossed seven scoreless innings in Baltimore while striking out 10 batters.