Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 9/6)

It’s another Friday in the majors, and we have a ton of things to sort through. It’s a great thing we have the help of the FTN Betting Model, and it has a fascinating pick at the top of the board.

MLB Best Bets

Shane Baz Over 15.5 Outs

(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This play is not for the faint of heart, but the reward is quite nice –

The EV is almost 10% ahead of any other play on the board according to the Prop Tool, which will always catch your eye. Baltimore is not typically an offense that I love attacking but I will say that the past 30 days haven’t been that great for the Orioles. It’s certainly not the largest sample size but they are 15^th in wRC+ and 20^th in wOBA, ISO and OPS against righty pitching. Shane Baz hasn’t been exactly great in his comeback from Tommy John as the K rate is just 19.9% but he’s still generating a 10.2% swinging strike rate and a 25.2% CSW. What is really interesting is the Orioles have seven lefties projected in the lineup. Baz has used his changeup and curveball more against lefties than righties and both of those pitches have a whiff rate of over 25%. In addition, those pitches don’t allow a wOBA of over .248, so Baz could navigate a tough Baltimore lineup for at least 16 outs Friday.