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Chris Meaney
It’s a Friday night on the diamond, and the amount of solid pitching that we can choose from is pretty high. It’s a great thing we have the help of the FTN Betting Model and it has pointed to a pitcher most will likely not consider.
MLB Best Bets
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This play has the highest edge in the FTN Prop Tool on the night, and it’s never going to feel shaky playing an over for Jacob deGrom. He only went 3.2 innings in his first start back this season, but that was 61 pitches. In the last rehab start, he was at 49, so a leap to around 75 pitches feels very reasonable. While deGrom does have to face the Mariners for the second time in a row, that’s one of the worst strikeout offenses in baseball, and deGrom still generated a 14.8% swinging strike rate and a 31.1% CSW. The four-seam fastball was still sitting at 97 mph in the first start but what was interesting is he used the slider almost 51% of the time. It had a 41.2% whiff rate and every single hitter for the Mariners has a swinging strike rate of at least 11.9% against that pitch this season.
Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
(+112, Caesars)
The Dodgers did have to travel across the country overnight after they beat the Marlins, posting 20 runs in the process. Shohei Ohtani had (without exaggeration) one of the best individual games we have ever seen to become the first player in the 50/50 club. As a team, the Dodgers are in the top three in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS and OBP, while they only have a 19.9% K rate when they see a lefty pitcher. That’s tough news for Kyle Freeland, who has surprisingly seen worse results on the road this year. It’s weird to see that from a Colorado pitcher but the HR/9 is 1.71 and WHIP is over 1.50. The Dodgers should be able to grind him down and even though the Dodgers clinched a playoff spot last night, the division is still in play. I would think they play mostly a regular lineup on Friday since the Padres are starting a series against the White Sox, and they won’t want to give up ground from their four game lead in the NL West.
