Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is just a ton of MLB action Friday all across the diamond, and playoff races are starting to heat up. We have a divisional doubleheader with Cleveland and Minnesota and the NL Wild Card race continues to change nightly. Let’s figure things out with the help of the FTN Betting Model.
MLB Best Bets
Bailey Ober Under 17.5 Outs
(+150, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We would get a huge return on this play since DK has it at +150 and Bailey Ober has a tough assignment in front of him. This is for Game 1, so be aware first pitch is at 2:10 p.m. ET. It may seem like an odd bet since Ober has ripped off eight straight starts of at least 18 outs, but he’s also faced the White Sox twice, the Tigers, twice, Seattle and Oakland twice. While the A’s have been a strong DFS offense for us, nobody is confusing them with a good offense and all of those teams are in the top 10 in K rate on the year. Cleveland is certainly not because they are under 19% for the K rate and they walk 7.6% of the time. The first time Ober pitched against Cleveland, he only lasted four innings. The edge is 18.95% here, and it’s well worth the risk.
Orioles Over 4.5 Runs
(+114, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Zack Littell is on the mound of the Rays, and he’s got a tough assignment with the Orioles in town. Baltimore is in the top three in ISO, OPS, OBP, wOBA and wRC+ this year against righty pitching while Littell has an ERA/FIP combo of over 4.00. He’s been slightly better in Tampa but that just means we get the guaranteed nine innings from the Orioles offense. Littell is throwing his slider as his lead pitch against lefties and Colton Cowser, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O’Hearn all have a wOBA of at least .352. The latter three sit at .252 or higher for the ISO and that quartet should get the O’s off and running.
