Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Friday, and that means that we have a ton of angles to take for the MLB bettling slate. There are varying levels of pitching talent on the mound, so let’s narrow it down with the help of the FTN Betting Model.
MLB Best Bets
Drew Thorpe Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I am going against our model right off the bat, because I think Drew Thorpe has an excellent chance to pitch six innings Friday. He’s on a streak of five straight starts with at least six innings pitched, which is less important than the number of pitches. Thorpe has thrown at least 88 pitches in four of those five starts and draws one of the best matchups in baseball. The Seattle Mariners lead the league in K rate against righty pitching at 28.6%, and they’re 24th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 22nd in ISO and 28th in OPS. There are certainly warts in the profile for Thorps since he jumped AAA entirely, and his 3.03 ERA does not match up with an xFIP of over 5.00. The K rate hasn’t transferred from AA since it’s just 15.4% in the majors but Thorpe can’t get a better spot. We should also give him credit for the 4.4% barrel rate and he still does have a 10.6% swinging-strike rate. The changeup is generating a 38.8% whiff rate and a .239 wOBA allowed and seven of the projected Mariners have a wOBA of under .295 against righty changeups. Even if Randy Arozarena makes his Seattle debut, it wouldn’t move me off of this play.
Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Runs
(-135, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Orioles are back at home and continue to be one of the best offenses in baseball against righty pitching. They lead the league in ISO and rank 12th in OBP and third in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The Padres had Dylan Cease throw a no-hitter Thursday, but Adam Mazur probably can’t replicate that feat. In 31 innings pitched, Mazur has a 7.84 ERA, 5.92 FIP and a 6.03 xFIP to go along with a 14.3% K rate and 12.9% walk rate. Even worse for him is he’s been walloped by lefty hitters in 84 batters faced. They have a .438 wOBA, 1.69 HR/9, 7.02 FIP and 6.72 xFIP. Mazur has used his four-seam fastball nearly 40% of the time despite it allowing a .321 ISO and .538 wOBA against lefties. The Orioles have Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins with a combo of either an ISO of .216 or a wOBA of .343, not to mention any of their righty hitters.
