Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 7/14)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals 

Rays -275 @ Royals +118 — Total 9 (BetMGM)

The Rays open up as the largest favorite on the board Friday evening, in the first series since the All-Star break. Tampa visits the last-place Kansas City Royals for a three-game set. I might end up finding a parlay piece to pair the Rays with, but officially we’re on a strikeout prop. 

Tyler Glasnow makes his ninth start of the season Friday after missing some time with injuries. The 29-year-old has always been a big strikeout arm but is displaying some ridiculous swing-and-miss numbers so far this season. Glasnow’s 18.5% swinging-strike percentage is easily the best of his career, at more than 5% greater than his career average. Over his last three starts, he’s posted an absurd 23.2% swinging-strike percentage – that includes his start against the Royals, in which he punched out 12 batters in only five innings of work. The righty doesn’t have the innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but he’d be leading a number of pitching categories. Both his strikeout and whiff percentage sit in the 97th percentile – while his chase rate ranks in the 88th percentile. Glasnow is primarily a three-pitch pitcher, with his fastball leading the way at a 43.6% usage, followed by his slider (34.4%), and curveball (21.3%). His curveball carries the highest strikeout percentage at 71.1% K% – while that number won’t hold, I saw some positive regression with his other two offerings. According to Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard, Glasnow’s fastball has a deserved K% of 33.8% – almost 6% higher than where it currently sits. While Chamberlain has Glasnow’s slider with a deserved K% 12.2% higher than the righty’s actual 20% K%. It’s wild to think Glasnow could be striking out even more hitters than he currently is, even with his K% on curveballs expected to come down. 

At the dish, Kansas City’s 24.8% K% against right-handed pitching is the fourth highest in MLB, and over the last 30 days that number sits a little higher at 25.4%. Not many clubs have put up worse discipline metrics than the Royals over the last 14 days. The Royals’ swinging strike percentage sits at 12.6% over that stretch, as they’re chasing too many pitches (35.6%). Overall KC’s 12.7% swinging-strike percentage is the third highest in the show. The Royals have the seventh-highest swing percentage on pitches inside the strike zone but have the fourth-lowest contact rate in the zone at 83.9% – a horrible combination. This is a tough matchup for the Royals’ bats as they have some of the worst strikeout rates against all three of Glasnow’s offerings. Kansas City ranks 10th or worse in K% against fastballs (26% – second-highest), curveballs (31.8% – 10th highest), and sliders (29.6% – 10th highest). 

I’m projecting Glasnow to pitch five-plus innings Friday evening and K the eight Royals we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over, as Frank projects Glasnow for 8.42 punchouts. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet

Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 K’s (-135, BetMGM)