Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Friday’s MLB action is a thrilling 14-game slate. Among the many opportunities, I’ve handpicked one game that promises the most exciting three-prop bets for the day’s card.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
The Cleveland Guardians will take the show on the road for a trip to South Beach to take on the Miami Marlins in a three-game weekend series. Cleveland has been outstanding this season — the Guardians sit alone atop the AL Central and have won 15 of their last 20 games. After a surprising NL Wild Card appearance last season, the Marlins have found nowhere near that same level of success in 2024. Miami sits at the bottom of the NL East with only 21 wins this season. Injuries have hammered their starting rotation, leaving them without Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and phenom Eury Perez for the entire year. Ryan Weathers will take the mound for Miami Friday. He’s been a surprising bright spot for the rotation, posting a career-best 3.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first 12 starts. A matchup with the Guardians should be a tough challenge for Weathers; Cleveland ranks in the top seven in baseball in both wRC+ and OBP against left-handed pitching.
David Fry has been stunning for the Guardians. He’s posted a .336 AVG with 8 homers and 27 RBIs thus far in his sophomore season. Fry has especially excelled in matchups against lefties this season. His .408 AVG against LHP is the fourth best in baseball. Below, I will summarize his overall matchup against Ryan Weathers and LHP.
David Fry in Road Games:
- .371 AVG, 1.097 OPS on Road
- 1 HR in L3/8 Road Games
- 1+ Hit in L11/5 Road Games
- 2+ Hits, Runs, RBIs in L9/15 Road Games
David Fry vs Ryan Weathers’ T4 Pitches:
- 4SFB — .533 AVG, 3 HR, 8 Hits
- CH — .600 AVG, .600 SLG, 3 Hits
- SNK — .250 AVG, 1HR, .667 SLG, 3 Hits
- SWP — Only 1 Plate Appearance
David Fry against left-handed pitching is simply an auto-bet at this point in the season. The matchup numbers and road splits are firm in our favor, making this a smash spot to kick off the weekend.
Best Bets
- Best Bet 1: David Fry o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook), 1u
- Best Bet 2: David Fry o1.5 Total Bases (+145, DraftKings Sportsbook), 0.75u
- Ladder Play: David Fry 4+ Total Bases (+500, DraftKings Sportsbook), 0.25u
