Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 6/28)


Every team in the majors is in action Friday, and that means we have about a billion bets to choose from, so let’s narrow it down with the help of the FTN Betting Model.

MLB Best Bets

Mets Over 3.5 Runs

(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)


The power of Grimace is rolling right now as the Mets have started to salvage their season. They are back at .500 and only one game back of the last Wild Card spot, while the offense has clicked in a big way. Against righties, they are seventh in wRC+, ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, 10th in OPS and seventh in OBP. Attacking Houston righty Ronel Blanco hasn’t always been fruitful this season with a 2.34 ERA but he’s far past due for regression. The FIP and xFIP are 4.07 and 4.13 while the BABIP is only .182. His walk rate of 10.2% is also not likely to do him many favors as the Mets are 10th in walk rate, and I believe this number is a run too low, while the model has the Mets projected for four runs.

Bailey Ober Over 6.5 Strikeouts

(-110, BetMGM)

It’s a large number for Bailey Ober (the model has him right at 6.41), but since he’s facing Seattle, I think he can get to seven. They continue to lead the league in K rate against righties at 28%, and when they are at home, that climbs even higher to 28.8%. Ober is generating a 13.1% swinging-strike rate and a 28.9% CSW on the year and while some may pause since he has a 23.8% K rate against lefties, his pitch mix should save him. Ober may face six lefties in the Seattle lineup but he uses his changeup 32.4% of the time. Six Seattle hitters have a swinging-strike rate of at least 12.6% against that pitch. Ober also has a 14.5% swinging-strike rate with the four-seam and changeup against both sides of the plate.

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