Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Friday in MLB means we have every team in action so there are about a billion bets to choose from. We’re here to try and narrow things down and figure out which ones look the best before the first pitch with the help of the FTN Betting Model.
MLB Best Bets
Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts
(+105, BetMGM)
Outside of one game against the A’s, Chris Sale has gone over this number in six of seven games, but that’s not what is most important for me on this pick. What’s most important is how Sale’s slider has been working this year since it has a 42.4% whiff rate and 57 strikeouts. Sale is taking on the Rays and they have the fourth-highest K rate against lefties this season at 25.3%. What is even more exciting is six of the projected nine hitters have a swinging-strike rate of 13.9% or higher against lefty sliders and the FTN Model has Sale projected for just over eight strikeouts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit nine or 10 in this spot.
Will Benson Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
(+105, BetMGM)
This play has one of the biggest edges on the slate at 15.8%, and Will Benson only needs a base hit here to get the job done. While he does face Freddy Peralta and likely will hit lower in the lineup, Benson handles the four-seam fastball very well. He has a .295 ISO and .430 wOBA against righty fastball since the start of last season while Peralta uses that pitch around half the time. Benson is hitting .245 against righties overall with a .347 wOBA and the big flaw is a 42.3% K rate. I’ll take some chances for the return here, especially when the model is backing it.
Luis Gil Over 6.5 Strikeouts
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I wouldn’t say I’m in full disagreement with the model here — we have Luis Gil projected for 6.55 strikeouts, so it’s right at the line. Boston is eighth in K rate against righty pitching this season at 24% and even though they’ll likely play 5-6 lefties, Gil has held them to a .215 wOBA and still has a 28.6% K rate against them. He doesn’t use his secondary stuff quite as much against lefties but that may not matter as much when your four-seam fastball has a 30.5% whiff rate and 54 of 90 strikeouts on the season.
