Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Friday, and that means that we have a ton of MLB action to choose from and all kinds of pitching on the mound. There are some aces but there are some gas cans as well so we have a range of bets to choose from.
MLB Best Bets
Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The FTN Model has the Braves projected at 4.8 runs. Even without Ronald Acuña Jr., this is an offense that will be dangerous against lefty pitching for the rest of the year. The Oakland A’s are in town and starting lefty J.P. Sears, and he has clear vulnerabilities on the road. When he’s facing a righty hitter outside of Oakland, Sears has allowed a .185 HR/9, a 5.55 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP with a K rate of just 15%. The four-seam fastball is still his lead pitch against righty hitters, and it’s allowed a .383 wOBA this season while the Braves still have a group of five hitters with a wOBA of over .340 this year when facing a lefty. Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud, Adam Duvall and Orlando Arcia also all have an ISO of at least .206 against lefty four-seams since the start of the 2023 season. The A’s have a better bullpen than you might think, but players like Mason Miller, T.J. McFarland and Austin Adams have thrown a lot of pitches over the past three days. Atlanta may not have to face the teeth of this bullpen unit.
Jake Bauers Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs
(+130, BetMGM)
This play has the fifth-highest edge attached to it in the FTN MLB Prop Model, and the return is great. Jake Bauers should hit right in the middle of the Milwaukee lineup against Erick Fedde, who has been a little worse against lefty hitters with a .285 wOBA, 20.4% K rate and a 4.39 FIP. What really jumps out is the cutter is his lead pitch against lefties and Bauers wrecks that pitch. He has a .333 ISO and .483 wOBA against that pitch and Bauers has a .177 ISO against righties this year. Now, the K rate is large at 35.4% but we also know that the White Sox have one of the worst bullpens in the league. They are 29th in xFIP, 28th in FIP, 22nd in K rate and 28th in HR/9 so Bauers should get plenty of chances to cash this one in.
Bryan Woo Under 5.5 Strikeouts
(+115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
As of right now, DK is still giving us plus money, and I’ll happily take that. Since he has come back, Bryan Woo has made four starts but the Mariners have kept his pitch count down as he hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches. Outside of one start where he struck out seven Yankees (because baseball is weird), Woo has three, five, and one strikeout. Since the Mike Trout injury, the Angels have a 22.3% K rate and Woo is only at a 20.3% K rate overall. Taking an under can be nerve-wracking, but the model does give us a 6.21% edge and Woo has not shown the ability to finish off hitters in his four starts.
