Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There is another huge slate of MLB action Friday, and that gives us a lot of opportunity to get on the right side of a bet or two. There is a good mix of pitchers I want to target for strikeout props and other ones I want to target with offenses, so let’s get into my best bets of the day.
MLB Best Bets
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Strikeouts
(-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This will be the fifth start in the majors for Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and he’s cleared this line twice. Once was the first start in Korea where he only pitched one (mostly disastrous) inning, and the second game was cut short by rain at just 68 pitches. In the next two starts, Yamamoto threw 80 and 91 pitches, racking up 14 strikeouts across 10 innings, and I think that’s more where we’re going to see him on most starts. His curve/splitter/cutter combo has mostly been as advertised so far, as every pitch has a whiff rate of at least 33.3% and those first two pitches have 16 strikeouts combined. Seven of the projected Mets have a swinging-strike rate of at least 12.1% against the curve, and every hitter is at 11.1% or higher against the splitter, although that sample size is much smaller. The Mets aren’t a heavy strikeout team (20.2%) but neither are the Padres and Yamamoto was able to hit six against them despite it being the second time they’ve seen him. There’s a little bit of juice to pay, but it should be worth it.
Cincinnati Reds Over 4.5 Runs
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a specifically poor matchup for Los Angeles lefty Tyler Anderson, because his K rate is under 16% and his fly-ball rate is 50.9%. Great American Ball Park is already leading in the ballpark factors for home runs on Statcast, just as it did in 2023. When the Reds have faced lefties so far, they rank 10th in OBP, ninth in OBP, fourth in ISO, ninth in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. They also raise their walk rate to 11.6% while improving on their K rate to 24.1%. Yes, that is an improvement on their K rate against righty pitching. On top of facing a low strikeout, high fly ball lefty, the Reds get to face an Angels bullpen that is 24th in FIP, 18th in xFIP and 22nd in K rate.
