Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 4/14)

Welcome to this Friday edition of MLB best bets at FTN. My betting strategy is different from what you may be accustomed to, especially if you’re a consistent follower of the superstar that is MLBdream. I’m not on the hunt for wins, I’m on the hunt for the largest edges possible.

Typically, I find these in longshot bets. Hopefully some of you have been tailing along this PGA season, for example:

In baseball, the most common longshot bets you’ll see me make are K ladders, HR props and stolen base props/SGPs. Stolen base SGPs are particularly interesting to me given the correlation, but books seem to be on guard this season.

Best MLB Bets for Friday, 4/14

Spencer Torkelson 5+ total bases

(+950, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Spencer Torkelson is facing Sean Manaea, who has been my favorite pitcher to target since the second half of last season. Manaea is off to a dreadful start — his CSW is down from 27.3% to 23.9% and his batted ball data is even worse:

This is exactly the type of contact that has led to a .369 wOBA allowed and .255 ISO allowed since last year’s All-Star break. Righties have clipped him to the tune of a .385 wOBA and .281 ISO. Enter, Spencer Torkelson. 

Torkelson’s numbers don’t jump off the page until we look at his batted ball data:

Pictured above is true hard hit rate. For a refresher, this means viewing hard hit balls as a proportion of total at bats instead of just at bats that result in a ball in play. In other words, it accounts for strikeout rate, which is especially important in recent samples. Torkelson’s 40% true hard hit rate this year is nearly elite, so I love his chances of squaring up a few balls against Manaea.

At the moment, this is all I have for today, but keep an eye on the tracker for more throughout the day. I’m also going to hammer PrizePicks (use promo code FTN when depositing) this season for as long as they allow us to dramatically correlate picks without reducing the payout odds. It’s working so far: