NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
When it comes to constructing a season-long roster or putting together a DFS lineup, there may not be a sport that requires a more analytical approach than baseball. When researching for a given slate, numerous advanced stats are used to reinforce why to target a player or why to fade them.
That said, it’s important to first understand what each metric means, and take it one step further: Why is it important?
There are multiple categories that advanced stats in baseball can be classified in, but each carries a level of importance in constructing a dominant season-long roster and a winning DFS lineup. Below is a simple and easy-to-use glossary that will help you familiarize yourself with what some of the most impactful advanced stats are and more importantly, why they’re useful for both hitters and pitchers.
The basics
The standard statistics in baseball can be viewed as the end product — essentially, what all of the advanced stats and data culminate to. At the end of the day, this is what you’re going to be scored on in daily and season-long formats, while the advanced metrics are better served to predict trends and outcomes.
Pitcher
ERA (earned run average): Average number of earned runs a pitcher allows per game. This is calculated by taking the total number of earned runs, multiplying by 9 (innings per game), and dividing it by the pitcher’s total amount of innings pitched.
K/9: Average number of strikeouts a pitcher records per nine innings pitched (the higher, the better).
HR/9: Average number of home runs a pitcher allows per nine innings pitched (the lower, the better).
WHIP: Walks and hits per inning pitched (the lower, the better)
IP: Innings pitched. This matters more in daily formats where a pitcher scores more points if they go deeper into a game.
Batter
HR: Home runs
XBH: Extra base hits
RBI: Runs batted in
R: Runs scored
AVG (batting average): Hits per at bat (the higher, the better)
OBP (on-base percentage): Times on base (hits plus walks plus hit-by-pitches) per plate appearance (at bats plus walks plus hit-by-pitches plus sacrifice flies (the higher, the better)
SLG (slugging percentage): Total bases accumulated per at bat (the higher, the better)
SB: Stolen bases
Advanced stats
When it comes to finding an edge in fantasy baseball, predicting trends and getting ahead of a hot streak (or cold streak, for that matter), becomes crucial. This is where advanced stats enter the picture. Below are the most useful advanced stats to use as well as why they are important for both hitters and pitchers, respectively.
wOBA (weighted on-base average): Taking on-base percentage one step further, wOBA measures a hitter’s value based on how they get on base. This metric weights hits accordingly, giving the most weight to home runs and the least to walks while scaling down between extra-base hits in between. Arguably the most useful predictor in a player’s value at the plate, you generally target hitters with higher wOBAs and pitchers with lower wOBAs allowed. While there is no universal scale, typically a 0.340-plus wOBA is considered above average, while you love to see pitchers allowing wOBAs below the average of 0.320.
ISO (isolated power): Slugging percentage minus batting average. ISO is often seen as the raw measure of slugging percentage, as it calculates a hitter’s number of extra-base hits per at-bat. Similar to wOBA, each extra-base hit is weighted with the understanding that not all extra-base hits are valued equally (i.e. a home run is more valuable than a triple, etc.). Any time a hitter possesses an ISO north of 0.200, you can consider them a dangerous power hitter while on the other side, you’d typically like to see a pitcher limit opposing ISO to around/below 0.150.
K% (strikeout rate): Simply put, the strikeout rate measures how much a hitter or pitcher records a strikeout on a per-batter basis. It’s calculated similar to batting average but instead of dividing the number of hits by plate appearance, it’s calculated by dividing the number of strikeouts by total plate appearances. When it comes to hitters, lower is better, typically seeing anything around or below 20% being elite. On the flip side, any time you see a pitcher with a strikeout rate north of 26-27%, they possess a nice amount of upside.
One thing to note with strikeout percentage is the change in trend over the last few years. Plate discipline has started to be less and less of a priority for batters as they continue to swing for the fences, causing power numbers to surge. This will also cause the league-average strikeout rates to rise, making it increasingly harder to find hitters who consistently strike out less than 20% of the time.
BB% (walk rate): Just about identical to strikeout rate, walk rate is calculated the exact same way, only measuring a player’s ability to draw walks as opposed to strikeouts. Walks are a low-ceiling outcome in a plate appearance, but something that still carries value as it contributes to on-base percentage and wOBA. Given the league’s trend toward a more free-swinging approach, anything above a 10% walk rate for a hitter can be considered good, while having a pitcher with a walk rate below 7-8% is typically looked at as elite.
BABIP (batting average on balls in play): A different angle on batting average, BABIP measures how often balls hit in play (not home runs), fall for hits. This is typically a great measure to determine whether or not a player has been overperforming and can expect some regression or has been the victim of bad luck and could snap out of a cold spell. Simply put, the more times a hitter puts a ball in play, the more likely they are to succeed. Typically, the closer a player’s BABIP is to their OBP, the better, as this shows they are right in line with their expected production. On the flip side, however, if a pitcher is surrendering a BABIP of 0.500, but is giving up a low hard-contact rate, this could indicate that they’ve been the victim of some bad luck and bloop hits. This could give you the opportunity to get ahead of a hot streak.
wRC+ (weighted runs created plus): Crediting a player for the value of their hits, wRC+ takes it one step further and factors in park effects and the current run environment around the league. Based on a scale where 100 is league-average, it makes it easy to read, showing that anyone with a wRC+ over 100 can be considered an above-average hitter. The more production a player has at the plate, the higher their wRC+ will be.
FIP (fielder independent pitching): Similar to ERA, FIP is a phenomenal indicator of the performance of a given pitcher. Unlike ERA, however, FIP isolates the pitcher’s performance separate from fielding performance by only using metrics that are within the control of the pitcher (strikeouts, walks, home runs, hit batters). This is a great metric to compare to a pitcher’s ERA, showing that if the FIP is much lower than the pitcher’s ERA, they could simply be the victim of poor fielding. If the FIP is much higher than the ERA, however, they could have been saved by some exceptional defense. Typically, when looking for an elite FIP, anything below 3.50 is targetable.
SIERA (skill interactive ERA): Taking FIP one step further, the goal of SIERA is to isolate the individual pitcher’s skill level as accurately as possible. In addition to valuing strikeouts, home runs and walks, SIERA accounts for balls in play and values them accordingly, as ground balls have a completely different effect on an outcome than a fly ball could. This is another metric to compare with ERA to try and predict trends, as pitchers with a lower ERA than SIERA typically have regression on the horizon, whereas pitchers with lower SIERAs than ERA should see improved performance.
Batted ball data
Hard% (hard contact percentage): Hard contact percentage measures the total percentage of a player’s hit balls that leave the bat traveling at least 95 miles per hour. It’s a straightforward metric that serves as a strong indicator of how good the contact a player is making at the plate truly is. Typically, anything above 40% is elite, while anything above 36-37% is above average. On the flip side, targeting this number as low as possible with a pitcher is vital, as soft contact typically results in ground balls and pop-ups, where hard contact is full of screaming liners and home runs.
GB% (ground ball percentage): Another similar and straightforward metric, GB% calculates the percentage of a player’s batted balls that result in ground balls. This is typically a number that will help distinguish the style of hitter you are targeting. A contact hitter may have a higher ground-ball rate, whereas a power hitter will likely possess a lower ground-ball rate, but higher fly-ball rate.
When it comes to targeting pitchers, the higher the ground-ball rate, the better. This leads to easy outs more often than line drives and fly-balls, which both carry an obvious likelihood to result in a home run that a ground ball does not.
FB% (fly ball percentage): This is the same exact measurement as ground-balls, but for fly balls from a batter. Typically, a power hitter will have a higher fly-ball percentage than he would a ground-ball percentage, indicating more upside. In terms of a pitcher, however, keeping the fly-ball percentage as low as possible is a surefire way to prevent home runs, making them a safer option in fantasy formats.
Plate discipline
O-Swing% (outside zone swing percentage): Just like the name of the metric reads, O-Swing% calculates the percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone that a batter swings at. This typically correlates well with swinging strike rate and can be a good indicator of pitchers to target. If a pitcher with a higher O-Swing% is matched up with a team full of players with a higher O-Swing% as well, this could indicate a ton of strikeout upside.
SwStr% (swinging strike rate): A bit more general and more commonly used, SwStr% calculates the percentage of whiffs a player records (swings and misses). This is where you’ll be able to differentiate the elite strikeout pitchers with high upside, as any pitcher with a SwStr% north of 10% is typically above average, whereas a pitcher with a SwStr% of 13-14% or higher is seen as an elite strikeout pitcher.
Contact% (contact rate): Another simple metric, contact rate simply indicates the percentage of swings that a batter makes contact. From a hitter perspective, the higher, the better, for obvious reasons.
