2024 MLB Second-Half Preview: Looking Back to Look Ahead

We’re a little past the halfway point of the 2024 MLB season, which can mean different things to different people. If you’re in the hunt for your league or (gulp) an overall: congrats! For the rest of us, now can be a time of reflection and projection, where we re-evaluate what went right or wrong this year and start to think about how we can apply those lessons to next season. 

If you’re like me, you had more than a few teams sunk — or at least set back — by the struggles of early picks who completely underperformed their draft day cost. Figuring out what happened to these players coming off presumably down seasons — barring an incendiary final two months — will be one of the keys to finding value in the middle rounds of drafts this winter. Are these good players who ran into a buzzsaw of bad circumstances or misfortune, or is there something more fundamentally wrong with their game? 

(As with any question of underperformance, we’ll attempt to separate games missed due to injury from disappointments on the field.)

Using NFBC ADP data from Jan. 1 through the end of March for 15-team drafts and comparing that to the Razzball player rater data through the All-Star break, here are some of the biggest gaps in on-field performance relative to expectations:

Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 7.5
Razzball Rank: 164

Corbin Carroll blistered the league as a rookie a year ago, but his second full season in the majors is stretching the definition of a sophomore slump — this is more like a sophomore collapse. The power that so nicely complimented his speed last year has completely dried up, and after leading off for Arizona all of last season, he’s spent much of this one hitting near the bottom of their lineup while flirting with the Mendoza line. On a per-game basis, his production has essentially been cut in half:

He’s played all year and — despite some lingering concerns about the shoulder he hurt last year — his impact on the ball hasn’t diminished as much as you would expect from a player who has suffered such a steep drop off. His 90th percentile exit velocity in 2023 was 106 mph; this season it’s 105.6 mph, suggesting that he’s not significantly compromised physically. 

Instead, at least part of the problem has been Carroll’s inability to adjust to the way pitchers have handled him. Compare a map of his slugging percentage in the zone in 2023 to where he’s doing damage this year:

Carroll excelled against pitches up and away last year, but pitchers have used that preference to entice him further up out of the zone in 2024. Swinging at those pitches has led to him nearly doubling his popup rate, from 4.3% to 8.4% — and popups are essentially automatic outs, just as damaging as strikeouts to a hitter’s chances of success. It’s tempting to point to his .250 BABIP this year and say “That’s just bad luck,” but doubling the amount of popups he hits is a surefire way to kill BABIP — that’s not just misfortune.

Because he’s been on base so infrequently, even Carroll’s primary means of contributing in roto — his legs — has suffered, with his rate of steals per game nearly slashed in half from last season.

There has been a slight uptick in Carroll’s hitting in recent weeks, with 3 of his 5 home runs coming in the week leading up to the All-Star break. That should assuage some fears about his long-term viability, but ultimately he’ll have to have a much better second half to make himself more appealing this winter. However, the fact that the raw contact quality — his exit velocities — and swing decisions have remained stable despite the collapse of the rest of his hitting profile is a good indicator that his talent hasn’t completely evaporated. His strikeout and walk rates have even improved, believe it or not, which is an encouraging sign for his growth as a hitter once he rights the ship with his batted ball outcomes.

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 41.3
Razzball Rank: 429

After Carroll, arguably the most disappointing player has been one of the catalysts for one of baseball’s most disappointing teams: Jays SS Bo Bichette. As a gifted contact hitter with pop who led off for one of baseball’s better lineups, Bichette has long been considered a premium source of average with the ability to contribute in three other categories — and occasionally even in steals — Bichette has done none of the above this year. 

Instead of being a batting average anchor, he’s been a batting average anchor (derogatory). Unlike Carroll, Bichette has suffered a noticeable drop in raw EVs, with his 90th percentile exit velocity dipping from 106.6 mph to 104.8 mph year-over-year. Possibly related, Bichette has been on the injured list twice this season, once for a strained quad and once for a strained calf. Those injuries possibly excuse the dip in raw pop, but Bichette’s game is one that can’t afford to lose any mph on his batted balls.

He hits the ball to the opposite field more than just about any hitter in baseball — his opposite field rate of 34.7% is second among all qualified hitters, trailing only Leody Taveras. That strategy is typically a strong one for batting average, but in concert with his declining exit velocities, it’s led to an inordinate number of weak flies and lineouts. Bichette’s average EV on those flies and liners is just 92.2 mph; it was 93.8 mph last year and 95.2 mph the year before that.

He’s just 26, but we’ve seen these all-hit-tool profiles go over a sudden cliff before (Tim Anderson, anybody?). I wouldn’t say Bichette is done as a productive hitter, but I do think the shape of his production is going to look different going forward. It’s likely that he begins to alter his goals at the plate, aiming to tap into pull side power and lift more now that he seemingly can’t drive the ball into the gaps with the authority he used to. That approach can be successful, but it doesn’t often produce the .300+ averages we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Bo. 

Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 54.6
Razzball Rank: 1035

Last on our list of the biggest underachievers is Dodgers pitcher Bobby Miller, who has possibly been the single least valuable starter in fantasy, considering the expectations he had entering the season. After a torrid rookie campaign saw him wield a high octane, well-rounded arsenal to great effect — a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP along with 11 wins and 8.6 K/9, few pitchers entered 2024 with more helium than Miller.

And he promptly imploded before our very eyes. The numbers are Lovecraft-ian: an 8.07 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and nearly 6 walks per 9 innings. Nearly nothing has gone right for Miller this year, but I want to highlight what might have gone the most wrong for him so far. 

In 2023, the pitch he features the most against right-handed hitters was his slider, throwing it 28% of the time and getting a miss on nearly a third of the swings those hitters took against it. This season, he’s only been able to throw it 19% of the time with the platoon advantage, and batters have only missed on 19% of their swings. Somehow, that offering has devolved into a below league average pitch. Much of that can be explained by the key to real estate: location, location, location.

Last season, he was dotting the edges perfectly with the pitch, just close enough to the zone to invite a swing and just far enough to be out of reach. This season the story is different — he’s further away from the strike zone overall, but also has thrown a chunk of his sliders to righties … right down the middle? 

Those have come in hitters’ counts, when Miller has tried to avoid throwing his fastball — and that’s the key issue he’s had this year. Miller has fallen behind hitters much more this year, and because of that he’s had to throw more predictable fastballs in easier-to-hit locations. His four-seam usage against right-handed hitters has spiked from 23% to 43% as he’s been forced to throw strikes in the zone, and having to pitch behind in the count has sapped the effectiveness of the rest of his repertoire. 

His first pitch strike rate has crashed from 65% to 57%, and his overall percentage of pitches taken for balls has climbed from a roughly league average 35% rate in 2023 to a much worse than average 40% rate this year. 

Miller is still uber-talented, but he’s putting himself in terrible positions. That may be traceable to the 1-2 ticks of velocity he’s pitched without this year compared to last year, but he still throws harder than 99% of the rest of the league’s starters; that should be enough to be effective, given the rest of his arsenal. If I was a betting man, I would say Miller finds his footing again, but the ceiling looks much lower than before — if nothing else, that 1.10 WHIP may end up a career-best because of his inconsistent command.