NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
It’s hard to believe the 2024 MLB season is already past the All-Star break, but here we are. We’ve been taking a look at the MLB awards outright markets, including MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to provide an update on the preseason articles at these very same markets. Today, we will take a look at the Cy Young Award.
2024 MLB Cy Young Awards
Current Cy Young Favorites
American League: Tarik Skubal
(-130, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Many may not have expected to see Tarik Skubal as the American League Cy Young favorite, but he was actually among the preseason betting favorites, especially after Gerrit Cole’s injury was expected to sideline him for two months. Skubal finished his first half with 2.41 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 2.70 xERA. Additionally, Skubal has 140 strikeouts in 116 innings, with a 30.8% strikeout rate. Now, Skubal has certainly earned the right to be the favorite, but Corbin Burnes isn’t far behind (+270, FanDuel), with a 2.43 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 3.00 xERA. Additionally, Burnes has logged 110 strikeouts in 118.2 innings pitched, with a 23.8% strikeout rate. Skubal certainly has the better peripherals, but one thing I question with Skubal is his workload. Prior to this season, Skubal’s career high in innings pitched was 149.1 back in 2021. With just 95 last season due to injury, at what point do the fourth-place Tigers say enough is enough with their ace? It is very possible the Tigers opt to shut him down or severely limit his workload down the stretch, which could certainly hurt his case for a Cy Young. At the moment, I think the right player statistically is favored, but long term, may be the wrong player.
National League: Chris Sale
(+125, FanDuel Sportsbook)
If I told you in March the Atlanta Braves ace would be the National League Cy Young favorite, you’d probably have agreed. However, most would have assumed that favorite would be Spencer Strider. Feb. 27, in our FTN Discord, I posted these three messages below:
Needless to say, as someone who has been a longtime Chris Sale fan and believer, I have not been surprised by his first half stats. Sale’s 2.70 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 2.70 xERA and 32.4% strikeout rate are easily his best numbers since 2018. Per FanGraphs’ projections, Sale is the projected National League Cy Young Award winner when factoring Depth Charts, Zips, ATC DC, Steamer and THE BAT projections for the remainder of the season. While Sale to win the Cy Young wasn’t an official play, I know some subscribers might have taken the messages I alluded to earlier to heart with their own personal play. If you did, things are certainly looking good at the All-Star break, and the official Chris Sale strikeout leader +10000 play is looking live as well.
Preseason Picks
AL Cy Young Preseason Pick: Bailey Ober
(+12500)
This was always a longshot play, and while it looks dead at the break, Ober has put together a solid season with a 4.14 ERA, 3.93 FIP and 3.63 xERA. Additionally, Ober’s 26.5% strikeout rate is a career high. Unfortunately, those numbers just haven’t taken the leap that was necessary for Ober to put himself in the Cy Young conversation.
NL Cy Young Preseason Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
(+1200)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto may have had an opportunity to make a run at the National League Cy Young Award, but a triceps injury has all but killed that run for the Japanese rookie. Prior to the injury list stint, Yamamoto posted a 2.92 ERA, 2.67 FIP and 3.17 xERA. Additionally, Yamamoto logged a 27.9% strikeout rate and 22.3 K-BB%. Those are elite numbers, especially for a rookie starting pitcher. That said, injury aside, this was probably a poor selection given the price at the time, but Yamamoto was at least in the conversation prior to the injury, and he was seemingly improving with each start throughout his rookie campaign, notably posting 2.34 ERA, 2.64 FIP and 28.6% strikeout rate following his disaster big-league debut in Korea.
